Home / MLB Projections MLB / Rockies @ Diamondbacks COL @ ARI

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

30-86  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sun, Aug 10 • 4:10 PM ET
Chase Field
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

56-61  |  Home

13
Probable Pitchers
Tanner Gordon
STARTING PITCHER

Tanner Gordon

#29 | Starting Pitcher
@
Brandon Pfaadt
STARTING PITCHER

Brandon Pfaadt

#32 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tanner Gordon None-None 8.37 -- 4.2 6
Brandon Pfaadt None-None 5.03 -- 5.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
8.37 ERA Ldr 5.03
-- WHIP --
4.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 5.0
6 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
28%
📊
DIAMONDBACKS
72%
ROCKIES --
DIAMONDBACKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 33%
Under 0 67%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.9
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 points (Arizona)
RockiesCOL (-3.5) 0 DiamondbacksARI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockies Cover

31.7%

Diamondbacks Cover

68.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -1.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)

COL By 1-2 runs

13.9%

COL By 3-4 runs

8.1%

ARI By 1-2 runs

19.6%

ARI By 3-4 runs

18.3%

AI Model Projected Score
2.88
COLORADO
4.78
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
5
COLORADO
7
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Diamondbacks Win
72% Win Prob
B
Sim Diamondbacks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Diamondbacks (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.9
D
Sim Diamondbacks (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.7
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 12.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 ARI @ COL 12 - 8
Sep 23, 2026 ARI @ COL 5 - 3
Sep 22, 2026 ARI @ COL 7 - 2
Aug 12, 2026 COL @ ARI 6 - 4
Aug 11, 2026 COL @ ARI 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado COL
vs
Arizona ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.64 ▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.254 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.322 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.318
.417 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.739 ▲
OPS
.720
180 ▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +66.0% more
Arizona: 1.4 vs Colorado: 0.8
Total Bases (L5) +27.8% more
Arizona: 14.5 vs Colorado: 11.4
Walks (L5) +27.8% more
Arizona: 4.6 vs Colorado: 3.6
Strikeouts (L5) +20.6% more
Arizona: 7.0 vs Colorado: 5.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 2.9 6
ARI Score 4.8 13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.1 / 7.6 17.0 / 16.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 0.8 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.0 / 5.8 5.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 14.5 / 11.4 24.0 / 24.0
Walks 4.6 / 3.6 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
4%MONEY96%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
92%MONEY8%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
COL
ARI
COL
ML
54% 87-74
60% 97-64
54% 86-74
55% 88-73
ATS
57% 91-70
60% 97-64
56% 89-71
52% 83-78
TTL
52% 80-73-8
60% 93-62-6
49% 73-77-9
50% 77-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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