TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
57-61 | Road
3
SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
65-53 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan Baker
#47 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan Woo
#22 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Baker | None-None | 4.41 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Bryan Woo | None-None | 3.08 | -- | 6.0 | 9 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.41
ERA
Ldr 3.08
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 9
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
43%
MARINERS
57%
RAYS
--
MARINERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Seattle)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SEA -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
TB By 1-2 runs
13.7%
TB By 3-4 runs
7.9%
SEA By 1-2 runs
19.6%
SEA By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
2.9
TAMPA BAY
Seattle
4.87
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Seattle
5
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mariners
Win
57% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mariners
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mariners (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Mariners (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 9, 2026
TB @ SEA
4 - 1
Aug 8, 2026
TB @ SEA
3 - 2
Aug 7, 2026
TB @ SEA
2 - 1
Jul 12, 2026
SEA @ TB
8 - 2
Jul 11, 2026
SEA @ TB
1 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Seattle
SEA
162
Games Played
162
4.54
▲
Runs / Game
4.10
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.728
▲
OPS
.693
169
Home Runs
▲
182
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+16.2% more
Seattle: 7.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 6.0
Total Bases (L5)
+10.0% more
Seattle: 14.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 12.7
Home Runs (Season)
+7.7% more
Seattle: 182.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 169.0
Walks (L5)
+32.2% more
Tampa Bay: 3.9
vs
Seattle: 2.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
2.9
3
SEA Score
4.9
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.0 / 6.0
9.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
2.0 / 1.9
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.7 / 9.5
12.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
14.0 / 12.7
15.0 / 17.0
Walks
2.7 / 3.9
2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
TB
SEA
TB
ML
50%
81-81
58%
95-68
52%
85-77
58%
95-68
ATS
60%
98-64
60%
97-66
59%
95-67
55%
90-73
TTL
56%
85-67-10
47%
73-81-9
53%
81-71-10
51%
78-75-10
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