HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
65-51 | Road
4
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
61-55 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan King
#74 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
David Bednar
#53 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan King | None-None | 3.17 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| David Bednar | None-None | 2.45 | -- | 1.2 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.17
ERA
Ldr 2.45
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.2
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
53%
YANKEES
47%
ASTROS
--
YANKEES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
67%
Under 0
33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)
HOU By 1-2 runs
15.0%
HOU By 3-4 runs
9.2%
NYY By 1-2 runs
19.7%
NYY By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
3.62
HOUSTON
New York
5.13
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Houston
3
HOUSTON
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Yankees
Win
47% Win Prob
D
Sim
Yankees
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Yankees (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim
Yankees (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.8
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 27, 2026
HOU @ NYY
5 - 1
Aug 26, 2026
HOU @ NYY
3 - 9
Aug 25, 2026
HOU @ NYY
9 - 7
Apr 26, 2026
NYY @ HOU
4 - 7
Apr 25, 2026
NYY @ HOU
8 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
New York
NYY
2
▲
Games Played
1
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.582
OPS
▲
1.041
4
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+200.0% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Houston: 3.0
Walks (L5)
+61.8% more
New York: 4.9
vs
Houston: 3.0
Errors (L5)
+30.0% more
New York: 0.4
vs
Houston: 0.1
Slugging Pct (Season)
+24.0%
New York: 59.4%
vs
Houston: 35.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
3.6
4
NYY Score
5.1
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.1
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
5.7 / 10.4
9.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 1.4
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.4 / 8.6
11.0 / 2.0
Total Bases
9.3 / 17.4
13.0 / 12.0
Walks
4.9 / 3.0
4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
HOU
NYY
HOU
ML
47%
76-85
50%
81-82
52%
85-77
47%
77-87
ATS
59%
95-66
56%
91-72
53%
86-76
55%
90-74
TTL
53%
81-73-7
45%
70-84-9
53%
82-72-7
45%
69-86-9
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