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CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

60-57  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sat, Aug 9 • 6:40 PM ET
PNC Park
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

51-66  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Emilio Pagan
STARTING PITCHER

Emilio Pagan

#15 | Relief Pitcher
@
Carmen Mlodzinski
STARTING PITCHER

Carmen Mlodzinski

#50 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Emilio Pagan None-None 2.92 -- 1.0 --
Carmen Mlodzinski None-None 4.07 -- 3.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
2.92 Ldr ERA 4.07
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 3.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
58%
📊
PIRATES
42%
REDS --
PIRATES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 35%
Under 0 65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Pittsburgh)
RedsCIN (-3.5) 0 PiratesPIT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Reds Cover

33.9%

Pirates Cover

66.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PIT -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

CIN By 1-2 runs

14.5%

CIN By 3-4 runs

8.7%

PIT By 1-2 runs

19.7%

PIT By 3-4 runs

17.8%

AI Model Projected Score
3.64
CINCINNATI
5.3
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
3
CINCINNATI
5
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pirates Loss
42% Win Prob
D
Sim Pirates Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pirates (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.7
B
Sim Pirates (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.9
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 2, 2026 PIT @ CIN 2 - 10
Aug 1, 2026 PIT @ CIN 4 - 1
Jul 31, 2026 PIT @ CIN 7 - 8
Jul 30, 2026 PIT @ CIN 2 - 3
Jun 28, 2026 CIN @ PIT 4 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati CIN
vs
Pittsburgh PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲ 4.73
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲ .253
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .330
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .404
.699
OPS
▲ .734
213 ▲
Home Runs
186
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +51.0% more
Pittsburgh: 0.8 vs Cincinnati: 0.3
Runs per Game (Season) +15.1% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7 vs Cincinnati: 4.1
Total Bases (L5) +10.5% more
Pittsburgh: 11.8 vs Cincinnati: 10.7
OPS (Season) +3.5%
Pittsburgh: 73.4% vs Cincinnati: 69.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 3.6 2
PIT Score 5.3 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.4 / 7.7 4.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.7 / 8.6 11.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 11.8 / 10.7 5.0 / 11.0
Walks 2.4 / 3.6 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
75%MONEY25%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
78%MONEY22%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
42%MONEY58%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
PIT Advantage
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
CIN
PIT
CIN
ML
52% 82-77
55% 88-71
52% 85-78
49% 79-81
ATS
54% 86-73
54% 86-73
50% 81-82
50% 80-80
TTL
47% 72-81-6
53% 81-73-5
50% 79-78-6
54% 83-72-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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