NEW YORK
METSNYM
63-53 | Road
4
MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
71-44 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Francisco Alvarez
#4 | Catcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Trevor Megill
#29 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francisco Alvarez | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Trevor Megill | None-None | 2.20 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
2.20
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
METS
42%
BREWERS
58%
METS
--
BREWERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
NYM By 1-2 runs
18.6%
NYM By 3-4 runs
13.8%
MIL By 1-2 runs
18.3%
MIL By 3-4 runs
13.3%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
4.93
NEW YORK
Milwaukee
4.85
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Milwaukee
5
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mets
Loss
42% Win Prob
D
Sim
Brewers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mets (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.1
D
Sim
Brewers (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 27, 2026
MIL @ NYM
8 - 2
Aug 26, 2026
MIL @ NYM
8 - 1
Aug 25, 2026
MIL @ NYM
2 - 3
Jul 22, 2026
NYM @ MIL
3 - 4
Jul 21, 2026
NYM @ MIL
4 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
Milwaukee
MIL
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲
5.14
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.341
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.705
OPS
▲
.743
204
▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+97.0% more
New York: 1.0
vs
Milwaukee: 0.0
Home Runs (Season)
+24.5% more
New York: 204.0
vs
Milwaukee: 154.0
Hits (L5)
+72.5% more
Milwaukee: 8.9
vs
New York: 5.2
Total Bases (L5)
+56.7% more
Milwaukee: 15.0
vs
New York: 9.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
4.9
4
MIL Score
4.9
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.0 / 1.0
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
8.9 / 5.2
6.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 1.2
2.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
9.6 / 8.3
12.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
15.0 / 9.6
13.0 / 18.0
Walks
3.2 / 3.2
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
NYM
MIL
NYM
ML
62%
101-61
50%
79-80
52%
84-78
48%
76-83
ATS
58%
94-68
58%
93-66
48%
78-84
49%
78-81
TTL
40%
62-92-8
55%
80-66-13
50%
77-77-8
51%
74-72-13
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …