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PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

66-49  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Aug 9 • 7:15 PM ET
Globe Life Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

60-57  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Jhoan Duran
STARTING PITCHER

Jhoan Duran

#59 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jacob deGrom
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob deGrom

#48 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jhoan Duran None-None 1.89 -- 1.0 1
Jacob deGrom None-None 2.86 -- 6.2 8
None-None W-L None-None
1.89 Ldr ERA 2.86
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.2
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 8
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
56%
📊
RANGERS
44%
PHILLIES --
RANGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Philadelphia)
PhilliesPHI (-3.5) 0 RangersTEX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Phillies Cover

68.7%

Rangers Cover

31.3%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

PHI By 1-2 runs

19.6%

PHI By 3-4 runs

18.3%

TEX By 1-2 runs

13.7%

TEX By 3-4 runs

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
6.01
PHILADELPHIA
4.06
TEXAS
Simulated Score
4
PHILADELPHIA
5
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Phillies Win
56% Win Prob
D
Sim Rangers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Phillies (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Sim Rangers (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.1
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 29, 2026 TEX @ PHI 8 - 3
Mar 28, 2026 TEX @ PHI 5 - 4
Mar 26, 2026 TEX @ PHI 3 - 5
Aug 10, 2025 PHI @ TEX 4 - 2
Aug 9, 2025 PHI @ TEX 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia PHI
vs
Texas TEX
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.15
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.242
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.438 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.724 ▲
OPS
.713
3
Home Runs
▲ 183
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +80.3% more
Philadelphia: 2.1 vs Texas: 0.4
Total Bases (L5) +41.8% more
Philadelphia: 19.3 vs Texas: 11.2
Hits (L5) +17.2% more
Philadelphia: 9.8 vs Texas: 8.1
Errors (L5) +12.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.4 vs Texas: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 6.0 3
TEX Score 4.1 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.1 / 9.8 9.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.4 / 2.1 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.9 / 8.5 11.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 11.2 / 19.3 14.0 / 9.0
Walks 6.0 / 1.0 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
39%MONEY61%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI Advantage
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
TEX
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
TEX Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
PHI
TEX
PHI
ML
53% 86-76
59% 97-67
57% 91-70
49% 80-84
ATS
57% 92-70
65% 107-57
61% 98-63
51% 83-81
TTL
53% 78-70-14
57% 88-67-9
55% 81-66-14
51% 78-76-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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