Home / MLB Projections MLB / Rockies @ Diamondbacks COL @ ARI

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

30-85  |  Road

5
FINAL
Sat, Aug 9 • 8:10 PM ET
Chase Field
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

55-61  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Jimmy Herget
STARTING PITCHER

Jimmy Herget

#44 | Relief Pitcher
@
Eduardo Rodriguez
STARTING PITCHER

Eduardo Rodriguez

#57 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jimmy Herget None-None 2.90 -- 1.1 1
Eduardo Rodriguez None-None 5.68 -- 5.1 2
None-None W-L None-None
2.90 Ldr ERA 5.68
-- WHIP --
1.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 5.1
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
28%
📊
DIAMONDBACKS
72%
ROCKIES --
DIAMONDBACKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 39%
Under 0 61%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.2
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (Arizona)
RockiesCOL (-3.5) 0 DiamondbacksARI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockies Cover

29.3%

Diamondbacks Cover

70.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -2.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)

COL By 1-2 runs

13.0%

COL By 3-4 runs

7.4%

ARI By 1-2 runs

19.5%

ARI By 3-4 runs

18.7%

AI Model Projected Score
2.61
COLORADO
4.79
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
6
COLORADO
7
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Diamondbacks Win
72% Win Prob
B
Sim Diamondbacks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Diamondbacks (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.2
D
Sim Diamondbacks (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.4
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 13.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 ARI @ COL 12 - 8
Sep 23, 2026 ARI @ COL 5 - 3
Sep 22, 2026 ARI @ COL 7 - 2
Aug 12, 2026 COL @ ARI 6 - 4
Aug 11, 2026 COL @ ARI 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado COL
vs
Arizona ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.64 ▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.254 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.322 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.318
.417 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.739 ▲
OPS
.720
180 ▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +98.0% more
Arizona: 1.6 vs Colorado: 0.6
Strikeouts (L5) +31.4% more
Arizona: 7.5 vs Colorado: 5.7
Errors (L5) +23.0% more
Arizona: 0.7 vs Colorado: 0.5
Total Bases (L5) +21.2% more
Arizona: 12.8 vs Colorado: 10.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 2.6 5
ARI Score 4.8 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.5 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.6 / 6.9 11.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.6 / 0.6 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.5 / 5.7 6.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 12.8 / 10.6 18.0 / 13.0
Walks 3.9 / 3.4 6.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
3%MONEY97%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
COL
ARI
COL
ML
54% 87-74
60% 97-64
54% 86-74
55% 88-73
ATS
57% 91-70
60% 97-64
56% 89-71
52% 83-78
TTL
52% 80-73-8
60% 93-62-6
49% 73-77-9
50% 77-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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