CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
60-56 | Road
2
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
50-66 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Chase Burns
#26 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Mitch Keller
#23 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Burns | None-None | 5.24 | -- | 6.0 | 10 |
| Mitch Keller | None-None | 3.86 | -- | 5.2 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.24
ERA
Ldr 3.86
--
WHIP
--
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
5.2
10 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
3
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
59%
PIRATES
41%
REDS
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
40%
Under 0
60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PIT -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
CIN By 1-2 runs
16.8%
CIN By 3-4 runs
11.2%
PIT By 1-2 runs
19.4%
PIT By 3-4 runs
15.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
4.12
CINCINNATI
Pittsburgh
4.91
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
4
CINCINNATI
Pittsburgh
6
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pirates
Win
41% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pirates
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pirates (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.8
B
Sim
Pirates (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 2, 2026
PIT @ CIN
2 - 10
Aug 1, 2026
PIT @ CIN
4 - 1
Jul 31, 2026
PIT @ CIN
7 - 8
Jul 30, 2026
PIT @ CIN
2 - 3
Jun 28, 2026
CIN @ PIT
4 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
4.73
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.404
.699
OPS
▲
.734
213
▲
Home Runs
186
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+77.0% more
Pittsburgh: 1.2
vs
Cincinnati: 0.4
Total Bases (L5)
+25.5% more
Pittsburgh: 13.2
vs
Cincinnati: 10.5
Strikeouts (L5)
+24.9% more
Pittsburgh: 8.6
vs
Cincinnati: 6.9
Runs per Game (Season)
+15.1% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7
vs
Cincinnati: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
4.1
2
PIT Score
4.9
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.7 / 7.5
5.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.6 / 6.9
9.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
13.2 / 10.5
9.0 / 11.0
Walks
2.1 / 4.4
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
CIN
PIT
CIN
ML
52%
82-77
55%
88-71
52%
85-78
49%
79-81
ATS
54%
86-73
54%
86-73
50%
81-82
50%
80-80
TTL
47%
72-81-6
53%
81-73-5
50%
79-78-6
54%
83-72-5
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