MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
56-58 | Road
5
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
48-66 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Calvin Faucher
#53 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Dylan Dodd
#46 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Faucher | None-None | 3.48 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Dylan Dodd | None-None | 3.80 | -- | 3.0 | 4 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.48 Ldr
ERA
3.80
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 3.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
57%
BRAVES
43%
MARLINS
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
63%
Under 0
37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIA -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-2 runs
19.7%
MIA By 3-4 runs
16.7%
ATL By 1-2 runs
15.8%
ATL By 3-4 runs
10.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
5.11
MIAMI
Atlanta
3.93
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Miami
3
MIAMI
Atlanta
5
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Marlins
Win
57% Win Prob
D
Sim
Braves
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Marlins (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.2
C
Sim
Braves (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
ATL @ MIA
3 - 5
Sep 26, 2026
ATL @ MIA
8 - 3
Sep 25, 2026
ATL @ MIA
0 - 3
Aug 6, 2026
MIA @ ATL
3 - 11
Aug 5, 2026
MIA @ ATL
1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Atlanta
ATL
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.41
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.324
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.727
OPS
▲
.757
168
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+99.4% more
Miami: 168.0
vs
Atlanta: 1.0
Errors (L5)
+26.0% more
Miami: 0.4
vs
Atlanta: 0.2
Hits (L5)
+9.3% more
Miami: 9.4
vs
Atlanta: 8.6
Walks (L5)
+8.7% more
Miami: 3.1
vs
Atlanta: 2.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
5.1
5
ATL Score
3.9
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.6 / 9.4
2.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.9 / 1.6
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.7 / 6.5
7.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
15.6 / 16.2
5.0 / 13.0
Walks
2.8 / 3.1
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
MIA
ATL
MIA
ML
46%
77-90
48%
78-84
54%
90-78
55%
88-72
ATS
57%
96-71
56%
91-71
52%
87-81
54%
86-74
TTL
53%
83-73-11
56%
88-69-5
49%
76-80-11
53%
82-73-5
Contextual Game News
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Walt Weiss Reveals Why Ronald Acuña Jr. Was DH in Game 3
Shohei Ohtani's Slump Raises Concerns for Dodgers in NLDS