CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
59-55 | Road
9
CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
42-73 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Smith
#36 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Colson Montgomery
#12 | Shortstop| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Smith | None-None | 2.81 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Colson Montgomery | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.81
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
1
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
65%
WHITE SOX
35%
GUARDIANS
--
WHITE SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
63%
Under 0
37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CLE -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
CLE By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CLE By 3-4 runs
18.1%
CHW By 1-2 runs
14.1%
CHW By 3-4 runs
8.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
6.6
CLEVELAND
Chicago
4.78
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Guardians
Win
65% Win Prob
C
Sim
White Sox
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Guardians (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.8
D
Sim
White Sox (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 11.4
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 8, 2026
CLE @ CHW
9 - 5
Oct 7, 2026
CLE @ CHW
9 - 3
Oct 5, 2026
CHW @ CLE
4 - 3
Oct 3, 2026
CHW @ CLE
3 - 0
Sep 16, 2026
CHW @ CLE
3 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Chicago
CHW
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.19
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.324
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.415
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.412
.696
OPS
▲
.826
162
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+99.4% more
Cleveland: 162.0
vs
Chicago: 1.0
Home Runs (L5)
+97.4% more
Chicago: 2.3
vs
Cleveland: 1.2
Errors (L5)
+45.0% more
Chicago: 1.2
vs
Cleveland: 0.8
Runs per Game (Season)
+43.2% more
Chicago: 6.0
vs
Cleveland: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
6.6
9
CHW Score
4.8
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.2 / 0.8
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.9 / 7.9
9.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
2.3 / 1.2
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
11.2 / 8.9
9.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
15.8 / 12.8
16.0 / 15.0
Walks
4.6 / 3.3
5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
87-79-0
(52.4%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CHW
88-80-0
(52.4%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
(57.7%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
81-84-1
O: 49.1% / U: 50.9%
Total +/-: +0.5
CHW
97-69-2
O: 58.4% / U: 41.6%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
CLE
CHW
CLE
ML
48%
81-87
54%
87-75
56%
94-74
49%
80-83
ATS
59%
99-69
57%
93-69
55%
93-75
58%
95-68
TTL
58%
97-69-2
56%
89-71-2
51%
85-81-2
44%
70-90-2
Contextual Game News
Guardians Storm Back in Game 4, Force Game 5 Against White Sox
Guardians Outslug White Sox in Game 4 to Force Decisive ALDS Gam…
White Sox Collapse in Game 4 Sets Up Winner-Take-All Game 5
Jose Ramirez Ignites Guardians' Comeback, Forces Game 5 vs. Whit…
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox