PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
65-49 | Road
9
TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
60-56 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Orion Kerkering
#50 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Cole Winn
#60 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orion Kerkering | None-None | 2.74 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
| Cole Winn | None-None | 1.07 | -- | 1.1 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.74
ERA
Ldr 1.07
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.1
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
55%
RANGERS
45%
PHILLIES
--
RANGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Texas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TEX -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)
PHI By 1-2 runs
14.8%
PHI By 3-4 runs
9.0%
TEX By 1-2 runs
19.7%
TEX By 3-4 runs
17.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
4.2
PHILADELPHIA
Texas
5.76
TEXAS
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
Texas
5
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rangers
Loss
45% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rangers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rangers (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.6
C
Sim
Rangers (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 29, 2026
TEX @ PHI
8 - 3
Mar 28, 2026
TEX @ PHI
5 - 4
Mar 26, 2026
TEX @ PHI
3 - 5
Aug 10, 2025
PHI @ TEX
4 - 2
Aug 9, 2025
PHI @ TEX
3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Texas
TEX
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.15
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.242
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.724
▲
OPS
.713
3
Home Runs
▲
183
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+6000.0% more
Texas: 183.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Walks (L5)
+391.0% more
Texas: 4.4
vs
Philadelphia: 0.5
Errors (L5)
+32.0% more
Texas: 0.5
vs
Philadelphia: 0.1
Runs per Game (Season)
+18.6% more
Texas: 4.2
vs
Philadelphia: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
4.2
9
TEX Score
5.8
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.1
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.2 / 9.3
8.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 1.7
0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
7.4 / 7.7
9.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
12.3 / 16.9
9.0 / 24.0
Walks
4.4 / 0.5
9.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
TEX
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
TEX
Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
PHI
TEX
PHI
ML
53%
86-76
59%
97-67
57%
91-70
49%
80-84
ATS
57%
92-70
65%
107-57
61%
98-63
51%
83-81
TTL
53%
78-70-14
57%
88-67-9
55%
81-66-14
51%
78-76-9
Contextual Game News
Trump Surprises Clemens with Medal of Freedom Announcement at Te…
Alex Cora Joins Growing List of Unavailable Managers for Seattle…
Phillies' 2027 Rotation Projection: Wheeler and Sanchez Lead Sta…
Alex Cora Rejects Phillies Again, Opts to Sit Out 2027 Season
Phillies' Managerial Plans Thrown Into Disarray as Alex Cora Opt…