KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
57-58 | Road
4
MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
54-60 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Daniel Lynch IV
#41 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Travis Adams
#45 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Lynch IV | None-None | 2.74 | -- | 2.0 | -- |
| Travis Adams | None-None | 6.86 | -- | 2.1 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.74 Ldr
ERA
6.86
--
WHIP
--
2.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 2.1
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
52%
TWINS
48%
ROYALS
--
TWINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
75%
Under 0
25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIN -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
KC By 1-2 runs
18.0%
KC By 3-4 runs
12.9%
MIN By 1-2 runs
18.8%
MIN By 3-4 runs
14.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Kansas City
4.35
KANSAS CITY
Minnesota
4.59
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Kansas City
3
KANSAS CITY
Minnesota
5
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Twins
Win
48% Win Prob
D
Sim
Twins
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Twins (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.2
B
Sim
Twins (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.9
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 6, 2026
MIN @ KC
4 - 3
Aug 5, 2026
MIN @ KC
1 - 2
Aug 4, 2026
MIN @ KC
2 - 8
Jul 30, 2026
KC @ MIN
3 - 4
Jul 29, 2026
KC @ MIN
4 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City
KC
vs
Minnesota
MIN
162
Games Played
162
4.26
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.718
OPS
▲
.720
170
Home Runs
▲
187
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+110.0% more
Minnesota: 2.1
vs
Kansas City: 1.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+51.9% more
Minnesota: 8.2
vs
Kansas City: 5.4
Total Bases (L5)
+22.0% more
Minnesota: 17.5
vs
Kansas City: 14.4
Home Runs (Season)
+10.0% more
Minnesota: 187.0
vs
Kansas City: 170.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
KC Score
4.4
4
MIN Score
4.6
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.1
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.9 / 9.0
14.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
2.1 / 1.0
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.2 / 5.4
8.0 / 3.0
Total Bases
17.5 / 14.4
22.0 / 17.0
Walks
1.5 / 2.8
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
MIN
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
KC
MIN
KC
ML
52%
84-78
55%
89-72
50%
80-81
56%
90-70
ATS
59%
95-67
57%
91-70
59%
95-66
58%
93-67
TTL
51%
78-75-9
58%
90-64-7
53%
80-72-9
54%
83-70-7
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