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COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

30-84  |  Road

1
FINAL
Fri, Aug 8 • 9:40 PM ET
Chase Field
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

54-61  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Juan Mejia
STARTING PITCHER

Juan Mejia

#47 | Relief Pitcher
@
Zac Gallen
STARTING PITCHER

Zac Gallen

#23 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Juan Mejia None-None 3.95 -- 1.0 2
Zac Gallen None-None 5.31 -- 6.0 6
None-None W-L None-None
3.95 Ldr ERA 5.31
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.0
2 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
29%
📊
DIAMONDBACKS
71%
ROCKIES --
DIAMONDBACKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 39%
Under 0 61%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Arizona)
RockiesCOL (-3.5) 0 DiamondbacksARI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockies Cover

42.1%

Diamondbacks Cover

57.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)

COL By 1-2 runs

16.8%

COL By 3-4 runs

11.2%

ARI By 1-2 runs

19.4%

ARI By 3-4 runs

15.8%

AI Model Projected Score
3.36
COLORADO
4.16
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
7
COLORADO
5
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Diamondbacks Win
71% Win Prob
B
Sim Rockies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Diamondbacks (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.8
D
Sim Rockies (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.5
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 12.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 ARI @ COL 12 - 8
Sep 23, 2026 ARI @ COL 5 - 3
Sep 22, 2026 ARI @ COL 7 - 2
Aug 12, 2026 COL @ ARI 6 - 4
Aug 11, 2026 COL @ ARI 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado COL
vs
Arizona ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.64 ▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.254 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.322 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.318
.417 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.739 ▲
OPS
.720
180 ▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +48.0% more
Arizona: 1.4 vs Colorado: 0.9
Strikeouts (L5) +30.4% more
Arizona: 7.3 vs Colorado: 5.6
Errors (L5) +15.0% more
Colorado: 0.7 vs Arizona: 0.6
Home Runs (Season) +7.8% more
Colorado: 180.0 vs Arizona: 166.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 3.4 1
ARI Score 4.2 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.7 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.0 / 7.4 6.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 0.9 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.3 / 5.6 8.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 12.7 / 11.8 13.0 / 8.0
Walks 3.9 / 3.6 4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
4%MONEY96%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
91%MONEY9%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
COL
ARI
COL
ML
54% 87-74
60% 97-64
54% 86-74
55% 88-73
ATS
57% 91-70
60% 97-64
56% 89-71
52% 83-78
TTL
52% 80-73-8
60% 93-62-6
49% 73-77-9
50% 77-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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