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WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

45-69  |  Road

0
FINAL
Fri, Aug 8 • 10:15 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

58-57  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Orlando Ribalta
STARTING PITCHER

Orlando Ribalta

#64 | Relief Pitcher
@
Drew Gilbert
STARTING PITCHER

Drew Gilbert

#0 | Center Field
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Orlando Ribalta None-None 5.73 -- 0.1 --
Drew Gilbert None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
5.73 ERA --
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
39%
📊
GIANTS
61%
NATIONALS --
GIANTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 40%
Under 0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (San Francisco)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 GiantsSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

45.8%

Giants Cover

54.2%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SF -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

WSH By 1-2 runs

17.6%

WSH By 3-4 runs

12.3%

SF By 1-2 runs

19.0%

SF By 3-4 runs

14.8%

AI Model Projected Score
3.58
WASHINGTON
4
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
4
WASHINGTON
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Giants Win
61% Win Prob
C
Sim Giants Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Giants (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.4
D
Sim Giants (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.6
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 10, 2026 WSH @ SF 10 - 11
Jun 9, 2026 WSH @ SF 6 - 3
Jun 8, 2026 WSH @ SF 4 - 3
Apr 19, 2026 SF @ WSH 0 - 3
Apr 18, 2026 SF @ WSH 7 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
San Francisco SF
162
Games Played
162
5.07 ▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.321 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.423 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.744 ▲
OPS
.706
210 ▲
Home Runs
178
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +99.0% more
San Francisco: 1.4 vs Washington: 0.4
Total Bases (L5) +85.2% more
San Francisco: 14.8 vs Washington: 8.0
Hits (L5) +60.0% more
San Francisco: 8.8 vs Washington: 5.5
Strikeouts (L5) +10.9% more
San Francisco: 10.2 vs Washington: 9.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 3.6 0
SF Score 4.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.9 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.8 / 5.5 10.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 0.4 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 10.2 / 9.2 7.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 14.8 / 8.0 19.0 / 5.0
Walks 2.5 / 4.0 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
15%MONEY85%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
WSH
SF
WSH
ML
49% 79-81
57% 92-69
53% 85-75
54% 87-74
ATS
62% 100-60
58% 93-68
52% 83-77
57% 91-70
TTL
55% 82-68-10
50% 77-78-6
46% 68-81-11
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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