Home / NFL Projections NFL / Saints @ Chargers NO @ LAC

NEW ORLEANS

SAINTSNO

0-0  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sun, Aug 10 • 4:00 PM ET
SoFi Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

CHARGERSLAC

1-0  |  Home

27
Key Game
Charlie Smyth
KEY GAME

Charlie Smyth

#39 | Place kicker
@
JK Scott
KEY GAME

JK Scott

#16 | Punter
Player
Charlie Smyth None-None
JK Scott None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SAINTS
50%
📊
CHARGERS
50%
SAINTS --
CHARGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
37.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Los Angeles)
SaintsNO (-3.5) 0 ChargersLAC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Saints Cover

45.1%

Chargers Cover

54.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around LAC -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAC)

NO By 1-6 points

15.8%

NO By 7-13 points

14.0%

LAC By 1-6 points

16.8%

LAC By 7-13 points

16.6%

AI Model Projected Score
17.65
NEW ORLEANS
19.38
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
20
NEW ORLEANS
23
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Chargers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Chargers Win
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Chargers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.7
D
Sim Chargers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 37.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 43.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 10, 2025 NO @ LAC 13 - 27
Oct 27, 2024 NO @ LAC 8 - 26
Oct 12, 2020 LAC @ NO 27 - 30
Oct 2, 2016 NO @ LAC 35 - 34
Oct 7, 2012 LAC @ NO 24 - 31
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +52.3% more
Los Angeles: 23.4 vs New Orleans: 15.4
Net Passing Yards (L5) +48.3% more
Los Angeles: 268.9 vs New Orleans: 181.3
Total Yards (L5) +42.0% more
Los Angeles: 386.3 vs New Orleans: 272.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +29.5% more
Los Angeles: 117.4 vs New Orleans: 90.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NO Score 17.7 13
LAC Score 19.4 27
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO Advantage
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -3.1
LAC
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -3.1
LAC
0-3-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +11.5
LAC
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAC
NO
LAC
NO
ML
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
ATS
33% 1-2-1
0% 0-4
0% 0-3-1
50% 2-2
TTL
75% 3-1
0% 0-4
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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