CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
58-55 | Road
4
NEW YORK
METSNYM
63-51 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Hunter Gaddis
#33 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Brett Baty
#7 | Third Base| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Gaddis | None-None | 3.61 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
| Brett Baty | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.61
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
46%
METS
54%
GUARDIANS
--
METS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CLE -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
CLE By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CLE By 3-4 runs
16.2%
NYM By 1-2 runs
16.4%
NYM By 3-4 runs
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
5.33
CLEVELAND
New York
4.37
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Guardians
Win
46% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Guardians (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Sim
Mets (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.7
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 6, 2026
NYM @ CLE
13 - 6
Aug 5, 2026
NYM @ CLE
6 - 5
Aug 4, 2026
NYM @ CLE
6 - 2
Aug 6, 2025
CLE @ NYM
4 - 1
Aug 5, 2025
CLE @ NYM
3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
New York
NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.19
Runs / Game
▲
4.31
.239
Avg (AVG)
.239
.316
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.395
.696
OPS
▲
.705
162
Home Runs
▲
204
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+34.8% more
Cleveland: 1.1
vs
New York: 0.7
Walks (L5)
+16.3% more
Cleveland: 2.9
vs
New York: 2.4
Strikeouts (L5)
+14.7% more
Cleveland: 10.4
vs
New York: 8.9
Hits (L5)
+11.1% more
Cleveland: 8.3
vs
New York: 7.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
5.3
4
NYM Score
4.4
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 1.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.4 / 8.3
1.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 0.7
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.9 / 10.4
9.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
10.6 / 11.7
4.0 / 15.0
Walks
2.4 / 2.9
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
CLE
NYM
CLE
ML
50%
79-80
54%
87-74
48%
76-83
49%
80-82
ATS
58%
93-66
58%
93-68
49%
78-81
59%
95-67
TTL
55%
80-66-13
55%
88-71-2
51%
74-72-13
43%
69-90-2
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