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CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

60-54  |  Road

1
FINAL
Wed, Aug 6 • 2:20 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

65-48  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Andrew Abbott
STARTING PITCHER

Andrew Abbott

#41 | Starting Pitcher
@
Dansby Swanson
STARTING PITCHER

Dansby Swanson

#7 | Shortstop
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Andrew Abbott None-None 2.34 -- 6.2 3
Dansby Swanson None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
2.34 ERA --
-- WHIP --
6.2 IP (Innings Pitched) --
3 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
45%
📊
CUBS
55%
REDS --
CUBS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 40%
Under 0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Cincinnati)
RedsCIN (-3.5) 0 CubsCHC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Reds Cover

57.0%

Cubs Cover

43.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

CIN By 1-2 runs

19.4%

CIN By 3-4 runs

15.6%

CHC By 1-2 runs

17.0%

CHC By 3-4 runs

11.5%

AI Model Projected Score
4.44
CINCINNATI
3.73
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
4
CINCINNATI
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Reds Loss
45% Win Prob
D
Sim Cubs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Reds (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.7
B
Sim Cubs (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.2
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 CHC @ CIN 9 - 1
Sep 19, 2026 CHC @ CIN 5 - 2
Sep 18, 2026 CHC @ CIN 4 - 6
Aug 30, 2026 CIN @ CHC 7 - 5
Aug 29, 2026 CIN @ CHC 5 - 17
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati CIN
vs
Chicago CHC
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.11 ▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.229 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.305 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.394 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.699 ▲
OPS
.374
213 ▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +100.0% more
Cincinnati: 213.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +87.8% more
Cincinnati: 4.1 vs Chicago: 0.5
OPS (Season) +32.5%
Cincinnati: 69.9% vs Chicago: 37.4%
Hits (L5) +28.2% more
Cincinnati: 8.2 vs Chicago: 5.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 4.4 1
CHC Score 3.7 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.5 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 5.9 / 8.2 11.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 0.9 3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.0 / 9.7 12.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 9.6 / 12.9 21.0 / 5.0
Walks 1.8 / 2.3 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
37%MONEY63%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
CIN
CHC
CIN
ML
58% 93-68
55% 88-71
51% 82-79
49% 79-81
ATS
61% 97-63-1
54% 86-73
47% 75-85-1
50% 80-80
TTL
52% 81-74-6
53% 81-73-5
46% 72-83-6
54% 83-72-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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