NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
60-54 | Road
3
TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
60-55 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
David Bednar
#53 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Cole Winn
#60 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Bednar | None-None | 2.55 | -- | 1.2 | 5 |
| Cole Winn | None-None | 1.13 | -- | 2.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.55
ERA
Ldr 1.13
--
WHIP
--
1.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 2.0
5 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
50%
RANGERS
50%
YANKEES
--
RANGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Texas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TEX -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)
NYY By 1-2 runs
15.6%
NYY By 3-4 runs
9.9%
TEX By 1-2 runs
19.7%
TEX By 3-4 runs
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
3.98
NEW YORK
Texas
5.24
TEXAS
Simulated Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Texas
5
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rangers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rangers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rangers (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.3
B
Sim
Rangers (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.2
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 7, 2026
TEX @ NYY
2 - 9
May 6, 2026
TEX @ NYY
6 - 1
May 5, 2026
TEX @ NYY
4 - 7
Apr 29, 2026
NYY @ TEX
0 - 3
Apr 28, 2026
NYY @ TEX
3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYY
vs
Texas
TEX
1
Games Played
▲
162
9.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.375
▲
Avg (AVG)
.242
.447
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.594
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
1.041
▲
OPS
.713
2
Home Runs
▲
183
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+9050.0% more
Texas: 183.0
vs
New York: 2.0
Hits (L5)
+38.9% more
Texas: 8.3
vs
New York: 6.0
Total Bases (L5)
+25.8% more
Texas: 14.0
vs
New York: 11.1
Runs per Game (Season)
+53.9% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Texas: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYY Score
4.0
3
TEX Score
5.2
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.5
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.3 / 6.0
8.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.2
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.6 / 9.1
5.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
14.0 / 11.1
9.0 / 9.0
Walks
2.6 / 4.6
8.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
TEX
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
NYY
TEX
NYY
ML
53%
86-76
47%
76-85
57%
91-70
52%
85-77
ATS
57%
92-70
59%
95-66
61%
98-63
53%
86-76
TTL
53%
78-70-14
53%
81-73-7
55%
81-66-14
53%
82-72-7
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