Home / MLB Projections MLB / Rays @ Angels TB @ LAA

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

56-59  |  Road

5
FINAL
Wed, Aug 6 • 4:07 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

55-59  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Griffin Jax
STARTING PITCHER

Griffin Jax

#22 | Starting Pitcher
@
Reid Detmers
STARTING PITCHER

Reid Detmers

#48 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Griffin Jax None-None 4.47 -- 1.0 3
Reid Detmers None-None 4.15 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
4.47 ERA Ldr 4.15
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
3 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
50%
📊
ANGELS
50%
RAYS --
ANGELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 56%
Under 0 44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Los Angeles)
RaysTB (-3.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rays Cover

39.7%

Angels Cover

60.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)

TB By 1-2 runs

16.2%

TB By 3-4 runs

10.5%

LAA By 1-2 runs

19.6%

LAA By 3-4 runs

16.4%

AI Model Projected Score
3.32
TAMPA BAY
4.36
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
3
TAMPA BAY
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Angels Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Angels Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Angels (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim Angels (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.7
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 14, 2026 TB @ LAA 8 - 3
Jun 13, 2026 TB @ LAA 0 - 8
Jun 12, 2026 TB @ LAA 3 - 4
May 31, 2026 LAA @ TB 2 - 5
May 30, 2026 LAA @ TB 14 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay TB
vs
Los Angeles LAA
162
Games Played
162
4.54 ▲
Runs / Game
4.04
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.369
.728 ▲
OPS
.679
169 ▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +34.0% more
Los Angeles: 1.1 vs Tampa Bay: 0.7
Walks (L5) +28.3% more
Los Angeles: 3.0 vs Tampa Bay: 2.3
Total Bases (L5) +8.3% more
Los Angeles: 12.2 vs Tampa Bay: 11.2
Errors (L5) +56.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.8 vs Los Angeles: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 3.3 5
LAA Score 4.4 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.8 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.4 / 7.0 6.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 0.7 1.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts 9.2 / 9.1 11.0 / 16.0
Total Bases 12.2 / 11.2 9.0 / 22.0
Walks 3.0 / 2.3 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
75%MONEY25%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
TB
LAA
TB
ML
59% 96-66
58% 95-68
55% 89-73
58% 95-68
ATS
60% 97-65
60% 97-66
51% 82-80
55% 90-73
TTL
53% 83-74-5
47% 73-81-9
52% 82-75-5
51% 78-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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