Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cardinals @ Dodgers STL @ LAD

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

57-58  |  Road

5
FINAL
Wed, Aug 6 • 4:10 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

66-48  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Riley O'Brien
STARTING PITCHER

Riley O'Brien

#61 | Relief Pitcher
@
Brock Stewart
STARTING PITCHER

Brock Stewart

#41 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Riley O'Brien None-None 1.84 -- 1.1 --
Brock Stewart None-None 2.70 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
1.84 Ldr ERA 2.70
-- WHIP --
1.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
42%
📊
DODGERS
58%
CARDINALS --
DODGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 75%
Under 0 25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Los Angeles)
CardinalsSTL (-3.5) 0 DodgersLAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

41.1%

Dodgers Cover

58.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAD -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

STL By 1-2 runs

16.6%

STL By 3-4 runs

10.9%

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.5%

LAD By 3-4 runs

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
3.39
ST. LOUIS
4.29
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
6
ST. LOUIS
4
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Dodgers Loss
58% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dodgers (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.9
D
Sim Cardinals (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.7
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 3, 2026 STL @ LAD 2 - 3
Sep 2, 2026 STL @ LAD 8 - 6
Sep 1, 2026 STL @ LAD 13 - 8
May 3, 2026 LAD @ STL 4 - 1
May 2, 2026 LAD @ STL 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis STL
vs
Los Angeles LAD
162
Games Played
162
4.44
Runs / Game
▲ 4.94
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .257
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .338
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .424
.691
OPS
▲ .762
167
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5) +46.3% more
Los Angeles: 17.7 vs St. Louis: 12.1
Home Runs (L5) +32.6% more
Los Angeles: 1.8 vs St. Louis: 1.3
Hits (L5) +28.8% more
Los Angeles: 9.8 vs St. Louis: 7.6
Errors (L5) +23.0% more
Los Angeles: 0.6 vs St. Louis: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 3.4 5
LAD Score 4.3 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.4 1.0 / 2.0
Hits 9.8 / 7.6 8.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 1.8 / 1.3 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.4 / 7.3 14.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 17.7 / 12.1 13.0 / 14.0
Walks 2.3 / 2.7 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
3%MONEY97%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
STL
LAD
STL
ML
56% 92-73
53% 85-74
48% 79-87
52% 84-77
ATS
59% 98-67
56% 89-70
43% 72-94
53% 85-76
TTL
48% 77-82-6
46% 68-81-10
44% 70-90-6
50% 76-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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