HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
64-50 | Road
4
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
55-57 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan King
#74 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Calvin Faucher
#53 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan King | None-None | 3.04 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Calvin Faucher | None-None | 3.56 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.04 Ldr
ERA
3.56
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
57%
MARLINS
43%
ASTROS
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
56%
Under 0
44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around HOU -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.6%
HOU By 3-4 runs
18.4%
MIA By 1-2 runs
13.6%
MIA By 3-4 runs
7.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
5.34
HOUSTON
Miami
3.36
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Houston
3
HOUSTON
Miami
5
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Astros
Loss
57% Win Prob
D
Sim
Marlins
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Astros (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Marlins (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 22, 2026
MIA @ HOU
2 - 5
Jul 21, 2026
MIA @ HOU
3 - 5
Jul 20, 2026
MIA @ HOU
5 - 8
Aug 6, 2025
HOU @ MIA
4 - 6
Aug 5, 2025
HOU @ MIA
7 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Miami
MIA
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.41
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.400
.582
OPS
▲
.727
4
Home Runs
▲
168
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+31.7% more
Houston: 9.9
vs
Miami: 6.8
Strikeouts (L5)
+22.9% more
Houston: 9.1
vs
Miami: 7.1
Total Bases (L5)
+15.6% more
Houston: 16.5
vs
Miami: 13.9
Walks (L5)
+14.0% more
Houston: 2.9
vs
Miami: 2.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
5.3
4
MIA Score
3.4
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.8 / 9.9
14.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
1.8 / 1.2
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.1 / 9.1
9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
13.9 / 16.5
21.0 / 20.0
Walks
2.5 / 2.9
3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
HOU
MIA
HOU
ML
48%
78-84
50%
81-82
55%
88-72
47%
77-87
ATS
56%
91-71
56%
91-72
54%
86-74
55%
90-74
TTL
56%
88-69-5
45%
70-84-9
53%
82-73-5
45%
69-86-9
Contextual Game News
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …
Yankees' Season Ends in Sweep as Boone Faces Fan Fury Over 'Brok…
Padres' Bullpen Boosted for Game 4 as Miller Returns, King Avail…