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KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

56-58  |  Road

7
FINAL
Wed, Aug 6 • 7:10 PM ET
Fenway Park
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

64-51  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Lucas Erceg
STARTING PITCHER

Lucas Erceg

#60 | Relief Pitcher
@
Connor Wong
STARTING PITCHER

Connor Wong

#12 | Catcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Lucas Erceg None-None 2.49 -- 1.0 --
Connor Wong None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
2.49 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
43%
📊
RED SOX
57%
ROYALS --
RED SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.4
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.4 points (Boston)
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 Red SoxBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

27.3%

Red Sox Cover

72.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -2.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

KC By 1-2 runs

12.3%

KC By 3-4 runs

6.8%

BOS By 1-2 runs

19.2%

BOS By 3-4 runs

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
3.97
KANSAS CITY
6.39
BOSTON
Simulated Score
4
KANSAS CITY
6
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Red Sox Loss
57% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Sox Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Red Sox (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.4
C
Sim Red Sox (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.4
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 KC @ BOS 1 - 4
Sep 12, 2026 KC @ BOS 1 - 5
Sep 11, 2026 KC @ BOS 3 - 2
May 20, 2026 BOS @ KC 4 - 3
May 19, 2026 BOS @ KC 7 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Boston BOS
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.26 ▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.316 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.718 ▲
OPS
.409
170 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +108.0% more
Boston: 1.3 vs Kansas City: 0.2
Strikeouts (L5) +59.0% more
Boston: 7.3 vs Kansas City: 4.6
Hits (L5) +26.1% more
Boston: 9.5 vs Kansas City: 7.5
Home Runs (Season) +98.8% more
Kansas City: 170.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 4.0 7
BOS Score 6.4 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.3 / 0.2 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.5 / 7.5 7.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 0.9 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.3 / 4.6 10.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 14.1 / 13.5 9.0 / 16.0
Walks 2.4 / 3.7 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
14%MONEY86%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
KC
BOS
KC
ML
50% 80-80
55% 89-72
47% 76-87
56% 90-70
ATS
58% 93-67
57% 91-70
48% 79-84
58% 93-67
TTL
46% 72-83-5
58% 90-64-7
47% 74-83-6
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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