SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
63-51 | Road
3
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
54-60 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Miller
#22 | Relief Pitcher@
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Adrian Del Castillo
#25 | Designated Hitter| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Miller | None-None | 3.92 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
| Adrian Del Castillo | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.92
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
3
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
58%
DIAMONDBACKS
42%
PADRES
--
DIAMONDBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
SD By 1-2 runs
18.7%
SD By 3-4 runs
14.0%
ARI By 1-2 runs
18.2%
ARI By 3-4 runs
13.1%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
4.24
SAN DIEGO
Arizona
4.09
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
San Diego
4
SAN DIEGO
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Padres
Win
58% Win Prob
D
Sim
Diamondbacks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Padres (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.2
D
Sim
Diamondbacks (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.3
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
ARI @ SD
4 - 9
Sep 26, 2026
ARI @ SD
7 - 10
Sep 25, 2026
ARI @ SD
11 - 4
Aug 6, 2026
SD @ ARI
5 - 1
Aug 5, 2026
SD @ ARI
4 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Arizona
ARI
2
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.318
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.925
▲
OPS
.720
4
Home Runs
▲
166
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+24.0% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Arizona: 4.6
OPS (Season)
+20.5%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Arizona: 72.0%
Hits (L5)
+17.4% more
San Diego: 10.2
vs
Arizona: 8.4
Strikeouts (L5)
+16.2% more
San Diego: 9.5
vs
Arizona: 7.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
4.2
3
ARI Score
4.1
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.5
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.4 / 10.2
4.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 0.8
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.9 / 9.5
6.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
15.5 / 15.9
7.0 / 17.0
Walks
4.8 / 2.9
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
ARI
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
ARI
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
SD
ARI
SD
ML
54%
87-74
51%
85-83
54%
86-74
51%
85-82
ATS
57%
91-70
54%
91-77
56%
89-71
55%
92-75
TTL
52%
80-73-8
51%
82-80-6
49%
73-77-9
54%
86-74-6
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