SAN FRANCISCO
GIANTSSF
56-57 | Road
8
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
49-64 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Logan Webb
#62 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Braxton Ashcraft
#35 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Webb | None-None | 3.24 | -- | 6.0 | 10 |
| Braxton Ashcraft | None-None | 3.24 | -- | 2.1 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.24
ERA
3.24
--
WHIP
--
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
2.1
10 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
3
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
56%
PIRATES
44%
GIANTS
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
58%
Under 0
42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PIT -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
SF By 1-2 runs
17.3%
SF By 3-4 runs
11.8%
PIT By 1-2 runs
19.2%
PIT By 3-4 runs
15.2%
AI Model Projected Score
San Francisco
4.45
SAN FRANCISCO
Pittsburgh
5.04
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
San Francisco
3
SAN FRANCISCO
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pirates
Loss
44% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pirates
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pirates (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.6
A
Sim
Pirates (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 3, 2026
SF @ PIT
2 - 5
Sep 2, 2026
SF @ PIT
5 - 4
Sep 1, 2026
SF @ PIT
12 - 13
May 10, 2026
PIT @ SF
6 - 7
May 9, 2026
PIT @ SF
13 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco
SF
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.13
Runs / Game
▲
4.73
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.404
.706
OPS
▲
.734
178
Home Runs
▲
186
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+91.0% more
Pittsburgh: 1.8
vs
San Francisco: 0.9
Strikeouts (L5)
+16.8% more
Pittsburgh: 9.5
vs
San Francisco: 8.2
Runs per Game (Season)
+14.5% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7
vs
San Francisco: 4.1
Total Bases (L5)
+10.8% more
Pittsburgh: 15.2
vs
San Francisco: 13.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SF Score
4.5
8
PIT Score
5.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 1.1
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.5 / 9.0
7.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.8 / 0.9
0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
9.5 / 8.2
8.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
15.2 / 13.8
9.0 / 21.0
Walks
3.6 / 3.6
4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0
(40.1%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
SF
PIT
SF
ML
52%
82-77
49%
79-81
52%
85-78
53%
85-75
ATS
54%
86-73
62%
100-60
50%
81-82
52%
83-77
TTL
47%
72-81-6
55%
82-68-10
50%
79-78-6
46%
68-81-11
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