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KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

56-57  |  Road

2
FINAL
Tue, Aug 5 • 7:10 PM ET
Fenway Park
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

63-51  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Daniel Lynch IV
STARTING PITCHER

Daniel Lynch IV

#41 | Relief Pitcher
@
Greg Weissert
STARTING PITCHER

Greg Weissert

#57 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Daniel Lynch IV None-None 2.45 -- 1.1 --
Greg Weissert None-None 2.81 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
2.45 Ldr ERA 2.81
-- WHIP --
1.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
44%
📊
RED SOX
56%
ROYALS --
RED SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Boston)
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 Red SoxBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

38.1%

Red Sox Cover

61.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

KC By 1-2 runs

15.8%

KC By 3-4 runs

10.0%

BOS By 1-2 runs

19.7%

BOS By 3-4 runs

16.8%

AI Model Projected Score
4.59
KANSAS CITY
5.8
BOSTON
Simulated Score
4
KANSAS CITY
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Red Sox Win
56% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Sox Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Red Sox (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.2
D
Sim Red Sox (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.4
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 KC @ BOS 1 - 4
Sep 12, 2026 KC @ BOS 1 - 5
Sep 11, 2026 KC @ BOS 3 - 2
May 20, 2026 BOS @ KC 4 - 3
May 19, 2026 BOS @ KC 7 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Boston BOS
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.26 ▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.316 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.718 ▲
OPS
.409
170 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +112.0% more
Boston: 1.4 vs Kansas City: 0.3
Strikeouts (L5) +18.4% more
Boston: 7.0 vs Kansas City: 5.9
Hits (L5) +10.8% more
Boston: 9.7 vs Kansas City: 8.8
Home Runs (Season) +98.8% more
Kansas City: 170.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 4.6 2
BOS Score 5.8 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.4 / 0.3 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.7 / 8.8 9.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 1.4 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.0 / 5.9 8.0 / 2.0
Total Bases 15.6 / 15.8 11.0 / 9.0
Walks 3.1 / 3.5 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
6%MONEY94%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
27%MONEY73%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
KC
BOS
KC
ML
50% 80-80
55% 89-72
47% 76-87
56% 90-70
ATS
58% 93-67
57% 91-70
48% 79-84
58% 93-67
TTL
46% 72-83-5
58% 90-64-7
47% 74-83-6
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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