CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
57-55 | Road
3
NEW YORK
METSNYM
63-50 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Smith
#36 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Francisco Alvarez
#4 | Catcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Smith | None-None | 2.86 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Francisco Alvarez | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.86
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
45%
METS
55%
GUARDIANS
--
METS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CLE -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
CLE By 1-2 runs
19.2%
CLE By 3-4 runs
15.2%
NYM By 1-2 runs
17.3%
NYM By 3-4 runs
11.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
5.14
CLEVELAND
New York
4.56
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Cleveland
4
CLEVELAND
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Guardians
Win
45% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Guardians (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.6
B
Sim
Mets (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 6, 2026
NYM @ CLE
13 - 6
Aug 5, 2026
NYM @ CLE
6 - 5
Aug 4, 2026
NYM @ CLE
6 - 2
Aug 6, 2025
CLE @ NYM
4 - 1
Aug 5, 2025
CLE @ NYM
3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
New York
NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.19
Runs / Game
▲
4.31
.239
Avg (AVG)
.239
.316
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.395
.696
OPS
▲
.705
162
Home Runs
▲
204
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+20.8% more
Cleveland: 11.1
vs
New York: 8.8
Home Runs (L5)
+14.7% more
Cleveland: 1.1
vs
New York: 0.9
Total Bases (L5)
+8.6% more
Cleveland: 14.6
vs
New York: 13.4
On-Base Pct (Season)
+0.6%
Cleveland: 31.6%
vs
New York: 31.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
5.1
3
NYM Score
4.6
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.1 / 0.7
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
9.1 / 9.4
4.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.1
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.8 / 11.1
9.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
13.4 / 14.6
5.0 / 6.0
Walks
3.1 / 2.3
1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
CLE
NYM
CLE
ML
50%
79-80
54%
87-74
48%
76-83
49%
80-82
ATS
58%
93-66
58%
93-68
49%
78-81
59%
95-67
TTL
55%
80-66-13
55%
88-71-2
51%
74-72-13
43%
69-90-2
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