Home / MLB Projections MLB / Reds @ Cubs CIN @ CHC

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

59-54  |  Road

5
FINAL
Tue, Aug 5 • 8:05 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

65-47  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Sam Moll
STARTING PITCHER

Sam Moll

#50 | Relief Pitcher
@
Shota Imanaga
STARTING PITCHER

Shota Imanaga

#18 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Sam Moll None-None 7.36 -- 1.0 2
Shota Imanaga None-None 3.12 -- 6.1 7
None-None W-L None-None
7.36 ERA Ldr 3.12
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.1
2 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 7
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
44%
📊
CUBS
56%
REDS --
CUBS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Chicago)
RedsCIN (-3.5) 0 CubsCHC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Reds Cover

46.0%

Cubs Cover

54.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

CIN By 1-2 runs

17.7%

CIN By 3-4 runs

12.4%

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.0%

CHC By 3-4 runs

14.7%

AI Model Projected Score
4.08
CINCINNATI
4.48
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
3
CINCINNATI
4
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cubs Loss
56% Win Prob
D
Sim Cubs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cubs (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.4
B
Sim Cubs (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.6
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 CHC @ CIN 9 - 1
Sep 19, 2026 CHC @ CIN 5 - 2
Sep 18, 2026 CHC @ CIN 4 - 6
Aug 30, 2026 CIN @ CHC 7 - 5
Aug 29, 2026 CIN @ CHC 5 - 17
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati CIN
vs
Chicago CHC
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.11 ▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.229 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.305 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.394 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.699 ▲
OPS
.374
213 ▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +17.0% more
Chicago: 0.5 vs Cincinnati: 0.3
Home Runs (Season) +100.0% more
Cincinnati: 213.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +87.8% more
Cincinnati: 4.1 vs Chicago: 0.5
OPS (Season) +32.5%
Cincinnati: 69.9% vs Chicago: 37.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 4.1 5
CHC Score 4.5 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.3 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.8 / 7.8 4.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 0.9 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.5 / 9.5 8.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 10.8 / 11.8 7.0 / 15.0
Walks 2.2 / 2.5 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
36%MONEY64%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
CIN
CHC
CIN
ML
58% 93-68
55% 88-71
51% 82-79
49% 79-81
ATS
61% 97-63-1
54% 86-73
47% 75-85-1
50% 80-80
TTL
52% 81-74-6
53% 81-73-5
46% 72-83-6
54% 83-72-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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