Home / MLB Projections MLB / Rays @ Angels TB @ LAA

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

55-59  |  Road

7
FINAL
Tue, Aug 5 • 9:38 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

55-58  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Bryan Baker
STARTING PITCHER

Bryan Baker

#47 | Relief Pitcher
@
Oswald Peraza
STARTING PITCHER

Oswald Peraza

#2 | Second Base
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Bryan Baker None-None 4.40 -- 1.0 2
Oswald Peraza None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
4.40 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
2 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
50%
📊
ANGELS
50%
RAYS --
ANGELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 53%
Under 0 47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (Los Angeles)
RaysTB (-3.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rays Cover

32.5%

Angels Cover

67.5%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAA -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)

TB By 1-2 runs

14.1%

TB By 3-4 runs

8.3%

LAA By 1-2 runs

19.7%

LAA By 3-4 runs

18.1%

AI Model Projected Score
2.86
TAMPA BAY
4.68
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
4
TAMPA BAY
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Angels Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Angels Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Angels (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.8
D
Sim Angels (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.5
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 14, 2026 TB @ LAA 8 - 3
Jun 13, 2026 TB @ LAA 0 - 8
Jun 12, 2026 TB @ LAA 3 - 4
May 31, 2026 LAA @ TB 2 - 5
May 30, 2026 LAA @ TB 14 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay TB
vs
Los Angeles LAA
162
Games Played
162
4.54 ▲
Runs / Game
4.04
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.369
.728 ▲
OPS
.679
169 ▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +51.0% more
Los Angeles: 1.1 vs Tampa Bay: 0.6
Total Bases (L5) +41.7% more
Los Angeles: 13.3 vs Tampa Bay: 9.4
Walks (L5) +39.6% more
Los Angeles: 3.4 vs Tampa Bay: 2.5
Hits (L5) +24.0% more
Los Angeles: 8.1 vs Tampa Bay: 6.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 2.9 7
LAA Score 4.7 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.1 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 8.1 / 6.5 6.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 0.6 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.3 / 7.6 11.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 13.3 / 9.4 10.0 / 15.0
Walks 3.4 / 2.5 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
47%MONEY53%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
27%MONEY73%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
TB
LAA
TB
ML
59% 96-66
58% 95-68
55% 89-73
58% 95-68
ATS
60% 97-65
60% 97-66
51% 82-80
55% 90-73
TTL
53% 83-74-5
47% 73-81-9
52% 82-75-5
51% 78-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
yahoo 0 minutes ago
Jeimer Candelario Opts for Free Agency After Brief Angels Stint
si 6 minutes ago
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
yahoo 5 hours, 45 minutes ago
Brewers vs. Dodgers NLCS Tickets: Prices, Schedule, and How to A…
sportingnews 5 hours, 56 minutes ago
Yankees' Faithful Boo as Another Season Ends in Disappointment: …
bleacherreport 5 hours, 59 minutes ago