Home / MLB Projections MLB / Padres @ Diamondbacks SD @ ARI

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

62-51  |  Road

10
FINAL
Tue, Aug 5 • 9:40 PM ET
Chase Field
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

54-59  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Wandy Peralta
STARTING PITCHER

Wandy Peralta

#58 | Relief Pitcher
@
James McCann
STARTING PITCHER

James McCann

#8 | Catcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Wandy Peralta None-None 3.10 -- 0.1 --
James McCann None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
3.10 ERA --
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
57%
📊
DIAMONDBACKS
43%
PADRES --
DIAMONDBACKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 67%
Under 0 33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Arizona)
PadresSD (-3.5) 0 DiamondbacksARI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

39.2%

Diamondbacks Cover

60.8%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)

SD By 1-2 runs

16.1%

SD By 3-4 runs

10.3%

ARI By 1-2 runs

19.6%

ARI By 3-4 runs

16.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3.43
SAN DIEGO
4.53
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
3
SAN DIEGO
5
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Diamondbacks Loss
43% Win Prob
D
Sim Diamondbacks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Diamondbacks (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.1
D
Sim Diamondbacks (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 ARI @ SD 4 - 9
Sep 26, 2026 ARI @ SD 7 - 10
Sep 25, 2026 ARI @ SD 11 - 4
Aug 6, 2026 SD @ ARI 5 - 1
Aug 5, 2026 SD @ ARI 4 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
Arizona ARI
2
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.318
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.925 ▲
OPS
.720
4
Home Runs
▲ 166
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +4050.0% more
Arizona: 166.0 vs San Diego: 4.0
Home Runs (L5) +67.0% more
Arizona: 1.4 vs San Diego: 0.8
Walks (L5) +47.8% more
Arizona: 2.7 vs San Diego: 1.8
Errors (L5) +28.0% more
Arizona: 0.5 vs San Diego: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 3.4 10
ARI Score 4.5 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.2 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.7 / 8.3 6.0 / 14.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 0.8 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.9 / 8.7 10.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 15.8 / 12.8 15.0 / 22.0
Walks 2.7 / 1.8 9.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
61%MONEY39%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
ARI
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
ARI
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
SD
ARI
SD
ML
54% 87-74
51% 85-83
54% 86-74
51% 85-82
ATS
57% 91-70
54% 91-77
56% 89-71
55% 92-75
TTL
52% 80-73-8
51% 82-80-6
49% 73-77-9
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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