Home / MLB Projections MLB / White Sox @ Mariners CHW @ SEA

CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

42-70  |  Road

3
FINAL
Tue, Aug 5 • 9:40 PM ET
T-Mobile Park
View Odds Details →

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

60-53  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Bryan Hudson
STARTING PITCHER

Bryan Hudson

#60 | Relief Pitcher
@
Bryan Woo
STARTING PITCHER

Bryan Woo

#22 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Bryan Hudson None-None 5.56 -- 1.0 2
Bryan Woo None-None 3.02 -- 7.0 9
None-None W-L None-None
5.56 ERA Ldr 3.02
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 7.0
2 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 9
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
35%
📊
MARINERS
65%
WHITE SOX --
MARINERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Seattle)
White SoxCHW (-3.5) 0 MarinersSEA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

White Sox Cover

38.7%

Mariners Cover

61.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SEA -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)

CHW By 1-2 runs

15.9%

CHW By 3-4 runs

10.2%

SEA By 1-2 runs

19.7%

SEA By 3-4 runs

16.7%

AI Model Projected Score
4.74
CHICAGO
5.89
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
3
CHICAGO
5
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mariners Win
65% Win Prob
C
Sim Mariners Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mariners (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.1
B
Sim Mariners (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.6
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 20, 2026 CHW @ SEA 4 - 5
May 19, 2026 CHW @ SEA 2 - 1
May 18, 2026 CHW @ SEA 1 - 6
May 10, 2026 SEA @ CHW 1 - 2
May 9, 2026 SEA @ CHW 1 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHW
vs
Seattle SEA
1
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.10
.324 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.415 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.412 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.826 ▲
OPS
.693
1
Home Runs
▲ 182
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +18100.0% more
Seattle: 182.0 vs Chicago: 1.0
Home Runs (L5) +14.5% more
Seattle: 1.9 vs Chicago: 1.7
Walks (L5) +51.5% more
Chicago: 3.4 vs Seattle: 1.7
Errors (L5) +39.0% more
Chicago: 0.6 vs Seattle: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHW Score 4.7 3
SEA Score 5.9 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.6 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.3 / 9.6 11.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.9 / 1.7 3.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 8.1 / 9.1 10.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 13.3 / 15.4 21.0 / 16.0
Walks 1.7 / 3.4 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
6%MONEY94%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW Advantage
88-79-0 (52.7%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8% Total +/-: +0.9
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
CHW
SEA
CHW
ML
50% 81-81
49% 81-86
52% 85-77
56% 94-73
ATS
60% 98-64
59% 99-68
59% 95-67
56% 93-74
TTL
56% 85-67-10
58% 96-69-2
53% 81-71-10
51% 84-81-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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