Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cardinals @ Dodgers STL @ LAD

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

57-57  |  Road

6
FINAL
Tue, Aug 5 • 10:10 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

65-48  |  Home

12
Probable Pitchers
Gordon Graceffo
STARTING PITCHER

Gordon Graceffo

#44 | Relief Pitcher
@
Alex Vesia
STARTING PITCHER

Alex Vesia

#51 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Gordon Graceffo None-None 5.65 -- 1.0 2
Alex Vesia None-None 2.33 -- 0.1 --
None-None W-L None-None
5.65 ERA Ldr 2.33
-- WHIP --
1.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.1
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
42%
📊
DODGERS
58%
CARDINALS --
DODGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 84%
Under 0 16%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
0.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
CardinalsSTL (-3.5) 0 DodgersLAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

49.9%

Dodgers Cover

50.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAD 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

STL By 1-2 runs

18.4%

STL By 3-4 runs

13.5%

LAD By 1-2 runs

18.4%

LAD By 3-4 runs

13.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
ST. LOUIS
3.51
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
5
ST. LOUIS
4
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Dodgers Win
58% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dodgers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: 0.0
D
Sim Cardinals (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
A
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 3, 2026 STL @ LAD 2 - 3
Sep 2, 2026 STL @ LAD 8 - 6
Sep 1, 2026 STL @ LAD 13 - 8
May 3, 2026 LAD @ STL 4 - 1
May 2, 2026 LAD @ STL 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis STL
vs
Los Angeles LAD
162
Games Played
162
4.44
Runs / Game
▲ 4.94
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .257
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .338
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .424
.691
OPS
▲ .762
167
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +38.0% more
Los Angeles: 9.6 vs St. Louis: 7.0
Home Runs (Season) +22.2% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs St. Louis: 167.0
Runs per Game (Season) +11.3% more
Los Angeles: 4.9 vs St. Louis: 4.4
OPS (Season) +7.1%
Los Angeles: 76.2% vs St. Louis: 69.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 3.5 6
LAD Score 3.5 12
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.6 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.2 / 7.0 17.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 1.0 4.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.6 / 7.0 6.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 9.5 / 10.6 34.0 / 15.0
Walks 2.0 / 2.5 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
16%MONEY84%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
STL
LAD
STL
ML
56% 92-73
53% 85-74
48% 79-87
52% 84-77
ATS
59% 98-67
56% 89-70
43% 72-94
53% 85-76
TTL
48% 77-82-6
46% 68-81-10
44% 70-90-6
50% 76-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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