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MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

52-59  |  Road

3
FINAL
Mon, Aug 4 • 6:40 PM ET
Comerica Park
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

TIGERSDET

65-48  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Travis Adams
STARTING PITCHER

Travis Adams

#45 | Relief Pitcher
@
Kyle Finnegan
STARTING PITCHER

Kyle Finnegan

#67 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Travis Adams None-None 6.75 -- 5.0 7
Kyle Finnegan None-None 4.14 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
6.75 ERA Ldr 4.14
-- WHIP --
5.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
7 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
39%
📊
TIGERS
61%
TWINS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 35%
Under 0 65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Detroit)
TwinsMIN (-3.5) 0 TigersDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Twins Cover

38.7%

Tigers Cover

61.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

MIN By 1-2 runs

15.9%

MIN By 3-4 runs

10.2%

DET By 1-2 runs

19.7%

DET By 3-4 runs

16.7%

AI Model Projected Score
3.39
MINNESOTA
4.54
DETROIT
Simulated Score
3
MINNESOTA
5
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Win
61% Win Prob
C
Sim Tigers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.2
D
Sim Tigers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.9
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 9, 2026 MIN @ DET 2 - 7
Sep 8, 2026 MIN @ DET 3 - 2
Sep 7, 2026 MIN @ DET 4 - 5
Sep 2, 2026 DET @ MIN 11 - 6
Sep 1, 2026 DET @ MIN 2 - 15
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota MIN
vs
Detroit DET
162
Games Played
162
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .320
.403 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.720
OPS
.720
187 ▲
Home Runs
181
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +119.0% more
Detroit: 1.7 vs Minnesota: 0.6
Total Bases (L5) +33.0% more
Detroit: 15.3 vs Minnesota: 11.5
Strikeouts (L5) +16.0% more
Detroit: 9.1 vs Minnesota: 7.9
Hits (L5) +8.9% more
Detroit: 8.4 vs Minnesota: 7.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 3.4 3
DET Score 4.5 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.4 / 7.8 12.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.7 / 0.6 3.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 9.1 / 7.9 8.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 15.3 / 11.5 22.0 / 15.0
Walks 1.6 / 2.7 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
6%MONEY94%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
12%MONEY88%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
MIN
DET
MIN
ML
54% 86-73
52% 84-78
54% 87-73
50% 80-81
ATS
64% 101-58
59% 95-67
57% 91-69
59% 95-66
TTL
46% 69-81-9
51% 78-75-9
46% 69-81-10
53% 80-72-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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