HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
62-50 | Road
8
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
55-55 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan Abreu
#52 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Gibson
#58 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Abreu | None-None | 1.79 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Cade Gibson | None-None | 3.21 | -- | 2.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.79 Ldr
ERA
3.21
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 2.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
55%
MARLINS
45%
ASTROS
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around HOU -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
HOU By 1-2 runs
18.8%
HOU By 3-4 runs
14.3%
MIA By 1-2 runs
17.9%
MIA By 3-4 runs
12.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
4.09
HOUSTON
Miami
3.82
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Houston
3
HOUSTON
Miami
5
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Astros
Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Marlins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Astros (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.3
D
Sim
Marlins (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.9
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 22, 2026
MIA @ HOU
2 - 5
Jul 21, 2026
MIA @ HOU
3 - 5
Jul 20, 2026
MIA @ HOU
5 - 8
Aug 6, 2025
HOU @ MIA
4 - 6
Aug 5, 2025
HOU @ MIA
7 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Miami
MIA
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.41
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.400
.582
OPS
▲
.727
4
Home Runs
▲
168
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+4100.0% more
Miami: 168.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+47.0% more
Miami: 4.4
vs
Houston: 3.0
Home Runs (L5)
+38.5% more
Miami: 1.5
vs
Houston: 1.1
Total Bases (L5)
+25.1% more
Miami: 14.8
vs
Houston: 11.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
4.1
8
MIA Score
3.8
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.2
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.9 / 7.8
7.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 1.1
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
10.1 / 8.8
7.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
14.8 / 11.9
15.0 / 16.0
Walks
2.8 / 2.4
1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
HOU
MIA
HOU
ML
48%
78-84
50%
81-82
55%
88-72
47%
77-87
ATS
56%
91-71
56%
91-72
54%
86-74
55%
90-74
TTL
56%
88-69-5
45%
70-84-9
53%
82-73-5
45%
69-86-9
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