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KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

56-56  |  Road

5
FINAL
Mon, Aug 4 • 7:10 PM ET
Fenway Park
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

62-51  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Nick Loftin
STARTING PITCHER

Nick Loftin

#12 | Third Base
@
Aroldis Chapman
STARTING PITCHER

Aroldis Chapman

#44 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Nick Loftin None-None -- -- -- --
Aroldis Chapman None-None 1.21 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 1.21
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
45%
📊
RED SOX
55%
ROYALS --
RED SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 53%
Under 0 47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Boston)
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 Red SoxBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

42.0%

Red Sox Cover

58.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

KC By 1-2 runs

16.8%

KC By 3-4 runs

11.2%

BOS By 1-2 runs

19.5%

BOS By 3-4 runs

15.8%

AI Model Projected Score
5.09
KANSAS CITY
5.9
BOSTON
Simulated Score
4
KANSAS CITY
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Red Sox Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Sox Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Red Sox (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.8
D
Sim Red Sox (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 KC @ BOS 1 - 4
Sep 12, 2026 KC @ BOS 1 - 5
Sep 11, 2026 KC @ BOS 3 - 2
May 20, 2026 BOS @ KC 4 - 3
May 19, 2026 BOS @ KC 7 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Boston BOS
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.26 ▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.316 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.718 ▲
OPS
.409
170 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +26.9% more
Boston: 9.1 vs Kansas City: 7.1
Total Bases (L5) +25.8% more
Boston: 15.9 vs Kansas City: 12.7
Home Runs (L5) +20.4% more
Boston: 1.3 vs Kansas City: 1.1
Errors (L5) +19.0% more
Boston: 0.6 vs Kansas City: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 5.1 5
BOS Score 5.9 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.4 3.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.1 / 7.1 11.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 1.1 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 6.0 / 6.4 9.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 15.9 / 12.7 15.0 / 22.0
Walks 3.2 / 3.7 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
7%MONEY93%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
51%MONEY49%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
KC
BOS
KC
ML
50% 80-80
55% 89-72
47% 76-87
56% 90-70
ATS
58% 93-67
57% 91-70
48% 79-84
58% 93-67
TTL
46% 72-83-5
58% 90-64-7
47% 74-83-6
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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