Home / MLB Projections MLB / Guardians @ Mets CLE @ NYM

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

56-55  |  Road

7
FINAL
Mon, Aug 4 • 7:10 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

63-49  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Cade Smith
STARTING PITCHER

Cade Smith

#36 | Relief Pitcher
@
Sean Manaea
STARTING PITCHER

Sean Manaea

#59 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Cade Smith None-None 2.92 -- 1.1 2
Sean Manaea None-None 3.52 -- 5.2 3
None-None W-L None-None
2.92 Ldr ERA 3.52
-- WHIP --
1.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 5.2
2 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
44%
📊
METS
56%
GUARDIANS --
METS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 56%
Under 0 44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Cleveland)
GuardiansCLE (-3.5) 0 MetsNYM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Guardians Cover

51.6%

Mets Cover

48.4%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CLE -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

CLE By 1-2 runs

18.7%

CLE By 3-4 runs

14.0%

NYM By 1-2 runs

18.1%

NYM By 3-4 runs

13.1%

AI Model Projected Score
4.96
CLEVELAND
4.8
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
4
CLEVELAND
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Guardians Win
44% Win Prob
D
Sim Mets Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Guardians (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.2
B
Sim Mets (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.8
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 6, 2026 NYM @ CLE 13 - 6
Aug 5, 2026 NYM @ CLE 6 - 5
Aug 4, 2026 NYM @ CLE 6 - 2
Aug 6, 2025 CLE @ NYM 4 - 1
Aug 5, 2025 CLE @ NYM 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland CLE
vs
New York NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.19
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.239
Avg (AVG)
.239
.316 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .395
.696
OPS
▲ .705
162
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +25.4% more
Cleveland: 11.6 vs New York: 8.7
Home Runs (L5) +21.2% more
Cleveland: 1.1 vs New York: 0.9
Total Bases (L5) +18.7% more
Cleveland: 15.4 vs New York: 12.5
Hits (L5) +16.4% more
Cleveland: 9.7 vs New York: 8.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 5.0 7
NYM Score 4.8 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.5 2.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.1 / 9.7 11.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.1 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.7 / 11.6 9.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 12.5 / 15.4 15.0 / 13.0
Walks 4.2 / 2.5 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
11%MONEY89%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
35%MONEY65%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE Advantage
86-79-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2% Total +/-: +0.5
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
CLE
NYM
CLE
ML
50% 79-80
54% 87-74
48% 76-83
49% 80-82
ATS
58% 93-66
58% 93-68
49% 78-81
59% 95-67
TTL
55% 80-66-13
55% 88-71-2
51% 74-72-13
43% 69-90-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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