CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
58-54 | Road
3
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
65-46 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Emilio Pagan
#15 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Caleb Thielbar
#24 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emilio Pagan | None-None | 2.98 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Caleb Thielbar | None-None | 2.34 | -- | 0.1 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.98
ERA
Ldr 2.34
--
WHIP
--
1.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.1
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
43%
CUBS
57%
REDS
--
CUBS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
69%
Under 0
31%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
CIN By 1-2 runs
18.0%
CIN By 3-4 runs
12.8%
CHC By 1-2 runs
18.8%
CHC By 3-4 runs
14.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
4.18
CINCINNATI
Chicago
4.43
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
3
CINCINNATI
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cubs
Loss
57% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cubs
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cubs (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.3
B
Sim
Cubs (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.6
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
CHC @ CIN
9 - 1
Sep 19, 2026
CHC @ CIN
5 - 2
Sep 18, 2026
CHC @ CIN
4 - 6
Aug 30, 2026
CIN @ CHC
7 - 5
Aug 29, 2026
CIN @ CHC
5 - 17
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Chicago
CHC
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.11
▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.229
▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.305
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.394
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.699
▲
OPS
.374
213
▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+100.0% more
Cincinnati: 213.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+87.8% more
Cincinnati: 4.1
vs
Chicago: 0.5
OPS (Season)
+32.5%
Cincinnati: 69.9%
vs
Chicago: 37.4%
Errors (L5)
+31.0% more
Cincinnati: 0.5
vs
Chicago: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
4.2
3
CHC Score
4.4
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.5
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.7 / 9.1
3.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 0.8
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.8 / 10.7
11.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
13.3 / 12.5
6.0 / 11.0
Walks
2.7 / 2.9
1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
CIN
CHC
CIN
ML
58%
93-68
55%
88-71
51%
82-79
49%
79-81
ATS
61%
97-63-1
54%
86-73
47%
75-85-1
50%
80-80
TTL
52%
81-74-6
53%
81-73-5
46%
72-83-6
54%
83-72-5
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