Home / MLB Projections MLB / Rays @ Angels TB @ LAA

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

55-58  |  Road

1
FINAL
Mon, Aug 4 • 9:38 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

54-58  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Ian Seymour
STARTING PITCHER

Ian Seymour

#61 | Starting Pitcher
@
Travis d'Arnaud
STARTING PITCHER

Travis d'Arnaud

#25 | Catcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Ian Seymour None-None 1.20 -- 2.1 3
Travis d'Arnaud None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
1.20 ERA --
-- WHIP --
2.1 IP (Innings Pitched) --
3 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
50%
📊
ANGELS
50%
RAYS --
ANGELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Los Angeles)
RaysTB (-3.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rays Cover

38.0%

Angels Cover

62.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAA -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)

TB By 1-2 runs

15.7%

TB By 3-4 runs

10.0%

LAA By 1-2 runs

19.7%

LAA By 3-4 runs

16.8%

AI Model Projected Score
3.3
TAMPA BAY
4.52
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
3
TAMPA BAY
4
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Angels Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Angels Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Angels (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.2
D
Sim Angels (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.8
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 14, 2026 TB @ LAA 8 - 3
Jun 13, 2026 TB @ LAA 0 - 8
Jun 12, 2026 TB @ LAA 3 - 4
May 31, 2026 LAA @ TB 2 - 5
May 30, 2026 LAA @ TB 14 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay TB
vs
Los Angeles LAA
162
Games Played
162
4.54 ▲
Runs / Game
4.04
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.369
.728 ▲
OPS
.679
169 ▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +26.0% more
Los Angeles: 1.1 vs Tampa Bay: 0.9
Errors (L5) +24.0% more
Los Angeles: 0.5 vs Tampa Bay: 0.2
Total Bases (L5) +8.1% more
Los Angeles: 11.4 vs Tampa Bay: 10.5
Strikeouts (L5) +23.3% more
Tampa Bay: 8.4 vs Los Angeles: 6.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 3.3 1
LAA Score 4.5 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.6 / 7.3 11.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 0.9 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 6.5 / 8.4 12.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 11.4 / 10.5 17.0 / 7.0
Walks 3.1 / 3.2 4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
11%MONEY89%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
TB
LAA
TB
ML
59% 96-66
58% 95-68
55% 89-73
58% 95-68
ATS
60% 97-65
60% 97-66
51% 82-80
55% 90-73
TTL
53% 83-74-5
47% 73-81-9
52% 82-75-5
51% 78-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
yahoo 0 minutes ago
Jeimer Candelario Opts for Free Agency After Brief Angels Stint
si 12 minutes ago
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
yahoo 5 hours, 50 minutes ago
Brewers vs. Dodgers NLCS Tickets: Prices, Schedule, and How to A…
sportingnews 6 hours, 1 minute ago
Yankees' Faithful Boo as Another Season Ends in Disappointment: …
bleacherreport 6 hours, 5 minutes ago