SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
62-50 | Road
2
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
53-59 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Yuki Matsui
#1 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Brandon Pfaadt
#32 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yuki Matsui | None-None | 5.18 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Brandon Pfaadt | None-None | 5.02 | -- | 5.2 | 4 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.18
ERA
Ldr 5.02
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 5.2
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
58%
DIAMONDBACKS
42%
PADRES
--
DIAMONDBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
61%
Under 0
39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
SD By 1-2 runs
19.6%
SD By 3-4 runs
16.2%
ARI By 1-2 runs
16.4%
ARI By 3-4 runs
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
4.43
SAN DIEGO
Arizona
3.47
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
San Diego
4
SAN DIEGO
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Padres
Loss
58% Win Prob
D
Sim
Diamondbacks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Padres (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Diamondbacks (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.9
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
ARI @ SD
4 - 9
Sep 26, 2026
ARI @ SD
7 - 10
Sep 25, 2026
ARI @ SD
11 - 4
Aug 6, 2026
SD @ ARI
5 - 1
Aug 5, 2026
SD @ ARI
4 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Arizona
ARI
2
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.318
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.925
▲
OPS
.720
4
Home Runs
▲
166
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+42.4% more
San Diego: 11.1
vs
Arizona: 6.4
Runs per Game (Season)
+24.0% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Arizona: 4.6
OPS (Season)
+20.5%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Arizona: 72.0%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+16.1%
San Diego: 56.3%
vs
Arizona: 40.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
4.4
2
ARI Score
3.5
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.4
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.5 / 9.5
12.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.2
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.4 / 11.1
8.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
13.2 / 15.2
21.0 / 8.0
Walks
2.5 / 2.2
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
ARI
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
ARI
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
SD
ARI
SD
ML
54%
87-74
51%
85-83
54%
86-74
51%
85-82
ATS
57%
91-70
54%
91-77
56%
89-71
55%
92-75
TTL
52%
80-73-8
51%
82-80-6
49%
73-77-9
54%
86-74-6
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