Home / MLB Projections MLB / Astros @ Red Sox HOU @ BOS

HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

62-49  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sun, Aug 3 • 11:35 AM ET
Fenway Park
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

61-51  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Taylor Trammell
STARTING PITCHER

Taylor Trammell

#26 | Left Field
@
Connor Wong
STARTING PITCHER

Connor Wong

#12 | Catcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Taylor Trammell None-None -- -- -- --
Connor Wong None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA --
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
51%
📊
RED SOX
49%
ASTROS --
RED SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 47%
Under 0 53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Boston)
AstrosHOU (-3.5) 0 Red SoxBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Astros Cover

37.6%

Red Sox Cover

62.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

HOU By 1-2 runs

15.6%

HOU By 3-4 runs

9.9%

BOS By 1-2 runs

19.7%

BOS By 3-4 runs

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
3.98
HOUSTON
5.24
BOSTON
Simulated Score
3
HOUSTON
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Red Sox Win
49% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Sox Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Red Sox (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.3
A
Sim Red Sox (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.2
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 3, 2026 HOU @ BOS 3 - 1
May 2, 2026 HOU @ BOS 6 - 3
May 1, 2026 HOU @ BOS 1 - 3
Apr 1, 2026 BOS @ HOU 4 - 6
Mar 31, 2026 BOS @ HOU 2 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston HOU
vs
Boston BOS
2
Games Played
2
3.00 ▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.169 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.229 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.354 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.582 ▲
OPS
.409
4 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +71.9% more
Boston: 2.0 vs Houston: 1.1
Walks (L5) +62.5% more
Boston: 4.2 vs Houston: 2.6
Errors (L5) +59.0% more
Boston: 0.9 vs Houston: 0.3
Total Bases (L5) +36.0% more
Boston: 19.4 vs Houston: 14.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 4.0 1
BOS Score 5.2 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.9 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.6 / 10.1 8.0 / 3.0
Home Runs 2.0 / 1.1 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.5 / 10.7 5.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 19.4 / 14.3 9.0 / 7.0
Walks 4.2 / 2.6 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
68%MONEY32%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
HOU
BOS
HOU
ML
50% 80-80
50% 81-82
47% 76-87
47% 77-87
ATS
58% 93-67
56% 91-72
48% 79-84
55% 90-74
TTL
46% 72-83-5
45% 70-84-9
47% 74-83-6
45% 69-86-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
si 1 minute ago
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
yahoo 5 hours, 50 minutes ago
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …
yahoo 6 hours ago
Yankees' Season Ends in Sweep as Boone Faces Fan Fury Over 'Brok…
bleacherreport 18 hours, 1 minute ago
Padres' Bullpen Boosted for Game 4 as Miller Returns, King Avail…
si 23 hours, 50 minutes ago