Home / MLB Projections MLB / Dodgers @ Rays LAD @ TB

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

64-47  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sun, Aug 3 • 12:10 PM ET
George M. Steinbrenner Field
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

55-57  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Brock Stewart
STARTING PITCHER

Brock Stewart

#41 | Relief Pitcher
@
Griffin Jax
STARTING PITCHER

Griffin Jax

#22 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Brock Stewart None-None 2.31 -- 1.0 --
Griffin Jax None-None 4.60 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
2.31 Ldr ERA 4.60
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
59%
📊
RAYS
41%
DODGERS --
RAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 76%
Under 0 24%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Los Angeles)
DodgersLAD (-3.5) 0 RaysTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

59.0%

Rays Cover

41.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAD -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.5%

LAD By 3-4 runs

16.1%

TB By 1-2 runs

16.5%

TB By 3-4 runs

10.9%

AI Model Projected Score
3.99
LOS ANGELES
3.08
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
3
LOS ANGELES
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Dodgers Win
59% Win Prob
D
Sim Rays Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dodgers (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.9
D
Sim Rays (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.1
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 17, 2026 TB @ LAD 4 - 5
Jun 16, 2026 TB @ LAD 0 - 1
Jun 15, 2026 TB @ LAD 3 - 4
Aug 3, 2025 LAD @ TB 3 - 0
Aug 2, 2025 LAD @ TB 0 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
Tampa Bay TB
162
Games Played
162
4.94 ▲
Runs / Game
4.54
.257
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.338 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.326
.424 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.762 ▲
OPS
.728
204 ▲
Home Runs
169
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +17.2% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs Tampa Bay: 169.0
Errors (L5) +14.0% more
Los Angeles: 0.5 vs Tampa Bay: 0.3
Runs per Game (Season) +8.1% more
Los Angeles: 4.9 vs Tampa Bay: 4.5
OPS (Season) +3.4%
Los Angeles: 76.2% vs Tampa Bay: 72.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 4.0 3
TB Score 3.1 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.5 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.4 / 7.8 7.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 11.1 / 10.3 3.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 12.3 / 11.2 7.0 / 10.0
Walks 2.3 / 1.9 5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
82%MONEY18%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
82%MONEY18%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
TB
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
LAD
TB
LAD
ML
58% 95-68
56% 92-73
58% 95-68
48% 79-87
ATS
60% 97-66
59% 98-67
55% 90-73
43% 72-94
TTL
47% 73-81-9
48% 77-82-6
51% 78-75-10
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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