MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
66-44 | Road
14
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
44-66 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Grant Anderson
#56 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob Young
#30 | Center Field| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Anderson | None-None | 3.29 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
| Jacob Young | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.29
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
69%
NATIONALS
31%
BREWERS
--
NATIONALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.3
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.3 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIL -3.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
MIL By 1-2 runs
17.9%
MIL By 3-4 runs
19.7%
WSH By 1-2 runs
9.8%
WSH By 3-4 runs
4.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
6.79
MILWAUKEE
Washington
3.51
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
3
MILWAUKEE
Washington
5
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Brewers
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Sim
Nationals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Brewers (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.3
D
Sim
Nationals (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.3
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 3, 2026
MIL @ WSH
2 - 3
May 2, 2026
MIL @ WSH
4 - 1
May 1, 2026
MIL @ WSH
6 - 1
Apr 12, 2026
WSH @ MIL
8 - 6
Apr 11, 2026
WSH @ MIL
3 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee
MIL
vs
Washington
WSH
162
Games Played
162
5.14
▲
Runs / Game
5.07
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.341
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.321
.403
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.423
.743
OPS
▲
.744
154
Home Runs
▲
210
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+54.5% more
Milwaukee: 1.9
vs
Washington: 0.9
Total Bases (L5)
+52.0% more
Milwaukee: 23.8
vs
Washington: 11.4
Hits (L5)
+50.8% more
Milwaukee: 14.6
vs
Washington: 7.2
Strikeouts (L5)
+22.4% more
Milwaukee: 7.9
vs
Washington: 6.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
6.8
14
WSH Score
3.5
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.4 / 0.2
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.2 / 14.6
7.0 / 16.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.9
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
6.1 / 7.9
10.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
11.4 / 23.8
10.0 / 24.0
Walks
2.7 / 3.4
8.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
MIL
WSH
MIL
ML
57%
92-69
62%
101-61
54%
87-74
52%
84-78
ATS
58%
93-68
58%
94-68
57%
91-70
48%
78-84
TTL
50%
77-78-6
40%
62-92-8
42%
65-90-6
50%
77-77-8
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