NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
60-51 | Road
3
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
54-55 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brent Headrick
#47 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Graham Pauley
#21 | Third Base| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Headrick | None-None | 3.60 | -- | 2.2 | 3 |
| Graham Pauley | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.60
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
2.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
3
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
55%
MARLINS
45%
YANKEES
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
0.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIA 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
NYY By 1-2 runs
18.4%
NYY By 3-4 runs
13.5%
MIA By 1-2 runs
18.5%
MIA By 3-4 runs
13.7%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
4.91
NEW YORK
Miami
4.95
MIAMI
Simulated Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Miami
5
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Marlins
Win
45% Win Prob
D
Sim
Marlins
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Marlins (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: 0.0
A
Sim
Marlins (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 5, 2026
MIA @ NYY
7 - 6
Apr 4, 2026
MIA @ NYY
7 - 9
Apr 3, 2026
MIA @ NYY
2 - 8
Aug 3, 2025
NYY @ MIA
3 - 7
Aug 2, 2025
NYY @ MIA
0 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYY
vs
Miami
MIA
1
Games Played
▲
162
9.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.41
.375
▲
Avg (AVG)
.249
.447
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.326
.594
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
1.041
▲
OPS
.727
2
Home Runs
▲
168
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+8300.0% more
Miami: 168.0
vs
New York: 2.0
Home Runs (L5)
+23.9% more
Miami: 1.8
vs
New York: 1.4
Total Bases (L5)
+10.1% more
Miami: 14.2
vs
New York: 12.9
Runs per Game (Season)
+51.0% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Miami: 4.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYY Score
4.9
3
MIA Score
5.0
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.9
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.4 / 7.5
9.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.8 / 1.4
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.2 / 9.7
14.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
14.2 / 12.9
16.0 / 14.0
Walks
3.2 / 3.8
2.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
NYY
MIA
NYY
ML
48%
78-84
47%
76-85
55%
88-72
52%
85-77
ATS
56%
91-71
59%
95-66
54%
86-74
53%
86-76
TTL
56%
88-69-5
53%
81-73-7
53%
82-73-5
53%
82-72-7
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