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PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

47-64  |  Road

9
FINAL
Sun, Aug 3 • 3:10 PM ET
Coors Field
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

30-80  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Carmen Mlodzinski
STARTING PITCHER

Carmen Mlodzinski

#50 | Relief Pitcher
@
Ezequiel Tovar
STARTING PITCHER

Ezequiel Tovar

#14 | Shortstop
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Carmen Mlodzinski None-None 4.21 -- 2.0 4
Ezequiel Tovar None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
4.21 ERA --
-- WHIP --
2.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
4 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
66%
📊
ROCKIES
34%
PIRATES --
ROCKIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Colorado)
PiratesPIT (-3.5) 0 RockiesCOL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pirates Cover

43.5%

Rockies Cover

56.5%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around COL -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)

PIT By 1-2 runs

17.1%

PIT By 3-4 runs

11.7%

COL By 1-2 runs

19.3%

COL By 3-4 runs

15.4%

AI Model Projected Score
4.08
PITTSBURGH
4.73
COLORADO
Simulated Score
3
PITTSBURGH
5
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rockies Loss
34% Win Prob
D
Sim Rockies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rockies (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.7
D
Sim Rockies (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.8
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 21, 2026 PIT @ COL 8 - 6
Jun 20, 2026 PIT @ COL 1 - 2
Jun 19, 2026 PIT @ COL 3 - 4
May 14, 2026 COL @ PIT 2 - 7
May 13, 2026 COL @ PIT 10 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh PIT
vs
Colorado COL
162
Games Played
162
4.73 ▲
Runs / Game
4.64
.253
Avg (AVG)
▲ .254
.330 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.322
.404
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .417
.734
OPS
▲ .739
186 ▲
Home Runs
180
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +72.9% more
Colorado: 5.0 vs Pittsburgh: 2.9
Total Bases (L5) +32.9% more
Colorado: 22.3 vs Pittsburgh: 16.8
Home Runs (L5) +23.1% more
Colorado: 2.1 vs Pittsburgh: 1.7
Hits (L5) +17.2% more
Colorado: 11.8 vs Pittsburgh: 10.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 4.1 9
COL Score 4.7 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.6 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 11.8 / 10.1 9.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 2.1 / 1.7 3.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 7.5 / 8.7 5.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 22.3 / 16.8 19.0 / 20.0
Walks 5.0 / 2.9 4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
68%MONEY32%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT Advantage
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
COL Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
PIT
COL
PIT
ML
60% 97-64
52% 82-77
55% 88-73
52% 85-78
ATS
60% 97-64
54% 86-73
52% 83-78
50% 81-82
TTL
60% 93-62-6
47% 72-81-6
50% 77-78-6
50% 79-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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