Home / MLB Projections MLB / Diamondbacks @ Athletics ARI @ ATH

ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

52-59  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sun, Aug 3 • 4:05 PM ET
Sutter Health Park
View Odds Details →

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

49-64  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Eduardo Rodriguez
STARTING PITCHER

Eduardo Rodriguez

#57 | Starting Pitcher
@
Elvis Alvarado
STARTING PITCHER

Elvis Alvarado

#37 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Eduardo Rodriguez None-None 5.53 -- 5.0 5
Elvis Alvarado None-None 3.43 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
5.53 ERA Ldr 3.43
-- WHIP --
5.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
5 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
54%
📊
ATHLETICS
46%
DIAMONDBACKS --
ATHLETICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 90%
Under 0 10%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Athletics)
DiamondbacksARI (-3.5) 0 AthleticsATH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Diamondbacks Cover

44.3%

Athletics Cover

55.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATH -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)

ARI By 1-2 runs

17.3%

ARI By 3-4 runs

11.9%

ATH By 1-2 runs

19.2%

ATH By 3-4 runs

15.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.57
ARIZONA
4.14
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
6
ARIZONA
4
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Athletics Loss
46% Win Prob
D
Sim Diamondbacks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Athletics (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.6
D
Sim Diamondbacks (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.7
A
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 22, 2026 ATH @ ARI 5 - 15
Jul 21, 2026 ATH @ ARI 5 - 6
Jul 20, 2026 ATH @ ARI 5 - 2
Aug 3, 2025 ARI @ ATH 6 - 4
Aug 2, 2025 ARI @ ATH 7 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona ARI
vs
Athletics ATH
162
Games Played
162
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.318 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.402
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.720 ▲
OPS
.719
166
Home Runs
▲ 194
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +172.4% more
Athletics: 4.7 vs Arizona: 1.7
Hits (L5) +43.9% more
Athletics: 9.7 vs Arizona: 6.8
Total Bases (L5) +36.4% more
Athletics: 16.1 vs Arizona: 11.8
Errors (L5) +36.0% more
Athletics: 0.8 vs Arizona: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARI Score 3.6 6
ATH Score 4.1 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.7 / 6.8 8.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 1.3 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.4 / 5.6 8.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 16.1 / 11.8 13.0 / 16.0
Walks 4.7 / 1.7 4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
ARI
ATH
ARI
ML
59% 95-67
54% 87-74
54% 87-74
54% 86-74
ATS
52% 84-78
57% 91-70
50% 81-80
56% 89-71
TTL
54% 84-73-5
52% 80-73-8
42% 66-90-5
49% 73-77-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
yahoo 0 minutes ago
Jeimer Candelario Opts for Free Agency After Brief Angels Stint
si 12 minutes ago
Cloud Production Secrets: NBC Sports, MLB, NHL, and Warner Bros.…
sportsvideo 6 hours ago
Rich Rodriguez's Arizona Legacy: All-Star Team Rekindles Tucson …
newspub_live 12 hours, 8 minutes ago
Alex Cora Joins Growing List of Unavailable Managers for Seattle…
si 1 day, 6 hours ago