ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
56-56 | Road
3
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
61-50 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Gordon Graceffo
#44 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Adrian Morejon
#50 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gordon Graceffo | None-None | 5.86 | -- | 2.0 | 1 |
| Adrian Morejon | None-None | 2.17 | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.86
ERA
Ldr 2.17
--
WHIP
--
2.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
45%
PADRES
55%
CARDINALS
--
PADRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
61%
Under 0
39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
STL By 1-2 runs
14.4%
STL By 3-4 runs
8.6%
SD By 1-2 runs
19.7%
SD By 3-4 runs
17.9%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
3.12
ST. LOUIS
San Diego
4.83
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
St. Louis
4
ST. LOUIS
San Diego
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Padres
Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Padres
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Padres (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.7
D
Sim
Padres (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 17, 2026
SD @ STL
6 - 1
Jun 16, 2026
SD @ STL
2 - 3
Jun 15, 2026
SD @ STL
0 - 3
May 10, 2026
STL @ SD
2 - 3
May 9, 2026
STL @ SD
2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
San Diego
SD
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.44
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.691
OPS
▲
.925
167
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+60.2% more
San Diego: 8.6
vs
St. Louis: 5.4
Runs per Game (Season)
+35.1% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
St. Louis: 4.4
Hits (L5)
+25.2% more
San Diego: 9.2
vs
St. Louis: 7.4
OPS (Season)
+23.4%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
St. Louis: 69.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
3.1
3
SD Score
4.8
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.0 / 0.8
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.2 / 7.4
10.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 0.7
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.6 / 5.4
16.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
13.3 / 11.2
19.0 / 6.0
Walks
1.8 / 1.6
3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
STL
SD
STL
ML
51%
85-83
53%
85-74
51%
85-82
52%
84-77
ATS
54%
91-77
56%
89-70
55%
92-75
53%
85-76
TTL
51%
82-80-6
46%
68-81-10
54%
86-74-6
50%
76-75-10
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