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TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

58-54  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sun, Aug 3 • 4:10 PM ET
T-Mobile Park
View Odds Details →

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

59-53  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Cole Winn
STARTING PITCHER

Cole Winn

#60 | Relief Pitcher
@
Andres Munoz
STARTING PITCHER

Andres Munoz

#75 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Cole Winn None-None 1.23 -- 1.0 2
Andres Munoz None-None 1.26 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
1.23 Ldr ERA 1.26
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
49%
📊
MARINERS
51%
RANGERS --
MARINERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Seattle)
RangersTEX (-3.5) 0 MarinersSEA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rangers Cover

44.3%

Mariners Cover

55.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SEA -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)

TEX By 1-2 runs

17.3%

TEX By 3-4 runs

11.9%

SEA By 1-2 runs

19.2%

SEA By 3-4 runs

15.2%

AI Model Projected Score
4.44
TEXAS
5.01
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
5
TEXAS
6
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mariners Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Mariners Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mariners (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.6
C
Sim Mariners (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.5
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 10, 2026 TEX @ SEA 3 - 4
Sep 9, 2026 TEX @ SEA 2 - 3
Sep 8, 2026 TEX @ SEA 10 - 5
Jul 27, 2026 SEA @ TEX 3 - 7
Jul 26, 2026 SEA @ TEX 6 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas TEX
vs
Seattle SEA
162
Games Played
162
4.15 ▲
Runs / Game
4.10
.242 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.317 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.396 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.713 ▲
OPS
.693
183 ▲
Home Runs
182
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +65.0% more
Seattle: 1.3 vs Texas: 0.7
Walks (L5) +45.3% more
Texas: 3.6 vs Seattle: 2.0
Errors (L5) +34.0% more
Texas: 0.6 vs Seattle: 0.2
Hits (L5) +19.1% more
Texas: 8.6 vs Seattle: 6.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TEX Score 4.4 4
SEA Score 5.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.9 / 8.6 5.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 0.7 3.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.7 / 10.5 7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 12.5 / 12.9 15.0 / 14.0
Walks 2.0 / 3.6 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
58%MONEY42%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
26%MONEY74%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
TEX
SEA
TEX
ML
50% 81-81
53% 86-76
52% 85-77
57% 91-70
ATS
60% 98-64
57% 92-70
59% 95-67
61% 98-63
TTL
56% 85-67-10
53% 78-70-14
53% 81-71-10
55% 81-66-14
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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