Home / MLB Projections MLB / Dodgers @ Rays LAD @ TB

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

64-46  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sat, Aug 2 • 1:10 PM ET
George M. Steinbrenner Field
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

54-57  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Jack Dreyer
STARTING PITCHER

Jack Dreyer

#86 | Relief Pitcher
@
Garrett Cleavinger
STARTING PITCHER

Garrett Cleavinger

#60 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jack Dreyer None-None 2.98 -- 1.0 1
Garrett Cleavinger None-None 2.25 -- 0.2 --
None-None W-L None-None
2.98 ERA Ldr 2.25
-- WHIP --
1.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.2
1 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
59%
📊
RAYS
41%
DODGERS --
RAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 58%
Under 0 42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Los Angeles)
DodgersLAD (-3.5) 0 RaysTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

59.8%

Rays Cover

40.2%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAD -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.6%

LAD By 3-4 runs

16.3%

TB By 1-2 runs

16.3%

TB By 3-4 runs

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
4.01
LOS ANGELES
3.02
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
4
LOS ANGELES
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Dodgers Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Sim Rays Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dodgers (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Rays (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 17, 2026 TB @ LAD 4 - 5
Jun 16, 2026 TB @ LAD 0 - 1
Jun 15, 2026 TB @ LAD 3 - 4
Aug 3, 2025 LAD @ TB 3 - 0
Aug 2, 2025 LAD @ TB 0 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
Tampa Bay TB
162
Games Played
162
4.94 ▲
Runs / Game
4.54
.257
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.338 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.326
.424 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.762 ▲
OPS
.728
204 ▲
Home Runs
169
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +56.0% more
Los Angeles: 1.0 vs Tampa Bay: 0.4
Total Bases (L5) +27.7% more
Los Angeles: 13.8 vs Tampa Bay: 10.0
Errors (L5) +21.0% more
Los Angeles: 0.7 vs Tampa Bay: 0.5
Hits (L5) +18.8% more
Los Angeles: 8.7 vs Tampa Bay: 7.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 4.0 0
TB Score 3.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.1 / 8.7 8.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.4 / 1.0 3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 11.2 / 9.0 11.0 / 13.0
Total Bases 10.0 / 13.8 17.0 / 6.0
Walks 3.4 / 2.9 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
76%MONEY24%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
72%MONEY28%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
TB
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
LAD
TB
LAD
ML
58% 95-68
56% 92-73
58% 95-68
48% 79-87
ATS
60% 97-66
59% 98-67
55% 90-73
43% 72-94
TTL
47% 73-81-9
48% 77-82-6
51% 78-75-10
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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