PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
47-63 | Road
5
COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
29-80 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Braxton Ashcraft
#35 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Juan Mejia
#47 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braxton Ashcraft | None-None | 2.90 | -- | 2.0 | 2 |
| Juan Mejia | None-None | 4.05 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.90 Ldr
ERA
4.05
--
WHIP
--
2.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
67%
ROCKIES
33%
PIRATES
--
ROCKIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Colorado)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around COL -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)
PIT By 1-2 runs
18.0%
PIT By 3-4 runs
12.8%
COL By 1-2 runs
18.8%
COL By 3-4 runs
14.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
4.09
PITTSBURGH
Colorado
4.34
COLORADO
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Colorado
6
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rockies
Win
33% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rockies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rockies (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.3
D
Sim
Rockies (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 21, 2026
PIT @ COL
8 - 6
Jun 20, 2026
PIT @ COL
1 - 2
Jun 19, 2026
PIT @ COL
3 - 4
May 14, 2026
COL @ PIT
2 - 7
May 13, 2026
COL @ PIT
10 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Colorado
COL
162
Games Played
162
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
4.64
.253
Avg (AVG)
▲
.254
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.322
.404
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.417
.734
OPS
▲
.739
186
▲
Home Runs
180
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+100.0% more
Colorado: 2.2
vs
Pittsburgh: 1.1
Walks (L5)
+64.3% more
Colorado: 5.5
vs
Pittsburgh: 3.3
Total Bases (L5)
+34.7% more
Colorado: 22.4
vs
Pittsburgh: 16.7
Errors (L5)
+12.0% more
Colorado: 0.5
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
4.1
5
COL Score
4.3
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.3
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
11.8 / 11.7
12.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
2.2 / 1.1
2.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
7.2 / 8.1
8.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
22.4 / 16.7
22.0 / 17.0
Walks
5.5 / 3.3
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
COL
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
PIT
COL
PIT
ML
60%
97-64
52%
82-77
55%
88-73
52%
85-78
ATS
60%
97-64
54%
86-73
52%
83-78
50%
81-82
TTL
60%
93-62-6
47%
72-81-6
50%
77-78-6
50%
79-78-6
Contextual Game News
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
Trump to Honor Roger Clemens with Presidential Medal of Freedom
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …