MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
65-44 | Road
8
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
44-65 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Abner Uribe
#45 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Orlando Ribalta
#64 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abner Uribe | None-None | 2.06 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Orlando Ribalta | None-None | 5.19 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.06 Ldr
ERA
5.19
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
69%
NATIONALS
31%
BREWERS
--
NATIONALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.4
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.4 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIL -2.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
MIL By 1-2 runs
19.3%
MIL By 3-4 runs
19.0%
WSH By 1-2 runs
12.4%
WSH By 3-4 runs
6.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
6.27
MILWAUKEE
Washington
3.88
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
3
MILWAUKEE
Washington
5
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Brewers
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Sim
Nationals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Brewers (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.4
D
Sim
Nationals (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.1
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 3, 2026
MIL @ WSH
2 - 3
May 2, 2026
MIL @ WSH
4 - 1
May 1, 2026
MIL @ WSH
6 - 1
Apr 12, 2026
WSH @ MIL
8 - 6
Apr 11, 2026
WSH @ MIL
3 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee
MIL
vs
Washington
WSH
162
Games Played
162
5.14
▲
Runs / Game
5.07
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.341
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.321
.403
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.423
.743
OPS
▲
.744
154
Home Runs
▲
210
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+66.7% more
Milwaukee: 2.3
vs
Washington: 0.8
Total Bases (L5)
+38.1% more
Milwaukee: 23.7
vs
Washington: 14.6
Walks (L5)
+38.0% more
Milwaukee: 4.1
vs
Washington: 2.6
Hits (L5)
+32.1% more
Milwaukee: 14.3
vs
Washington: 9.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
6.3
8
WSH Score
3.9
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.5 / 0.2
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.7 / 14.3
2.0 / 15.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 2.3
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.7 / 7.8
5.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
14.6 / 23.7
5.0 / 24.0
Walks
2.6 / 4.1
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
MIL
WSH
MIL
ML
57%
92-69
62%
101-61
54%
87-74
52%
84-78
ATS
58%
93-68
58%
94-68
57%
91-70
48%
78-84
TTL
50%
77-78-6
40%
62-92-8
42%
65-90-6
50%
77-77-8
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