MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
51-58 | Road
4
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
55-54 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bailey Ober
#17 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Hunter Gaddis
#33 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Ober | None-None | 5.38 | -- | 5.0 | 4 |
| Hunter Gaddis | None-None | 3.30 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.38
ERA
Ldr 3.30
--
WHIP
--
5.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
4 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
3
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
46%
GUARDIANS
54%
TWINS
--
GUARDIANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CLE -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
MIN By 1-2 runs
15.1%
MIN By 3-4 runs
9.3%
CLE By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CLE By 3-4 runs
17.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
4.27
MINNESOTA
Cleveland
5.73
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Minnesota
3
MINNESOTA
Cleveland
5
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Guardians
Win
54% Win Prob
D
Sim
Guardians
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Guardians (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim
Guardians (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2026
CLE @ MIN
9 - 2
Sep 12, 2026
CLE @ MIN
3 - 4
Sep 11, 2026
CLE @ MIN
5 - 2
Jul 23, 2026
MIN @ CLE
3 - 1
Jul 22, 2026
MIN @ CLE
10 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota
MIN
vs
Cleveland
CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.245
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.403
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.720
▲
OPS
.696
187
▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5)
+37.1% more
Cleveland: 13.2
vs
Minnesota: 9.6
Hits (L5)
+33.3% more
Cleveland: 9.2
vs
Minnesota: 6.9
Errors (L5)
+24.0% more
Cleveland: 0.7
vs
Minnesota: 0.5
Strikeouts (L5)
+21.5% more
Cleveland: 9.7
vs
Minnesota: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
4.3
4
CLE Score
5.7
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.5
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.2 / 6.9
10.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 0.8
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.7 / 8.0
15.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
13.2 / 9.6
19.0 / 16.0
Walks
2.3 / 2.8
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
MIN
CLE
MIN
ML
54%
87-74
52%
84-78
49%
80-82
50%
80-81
ATS
58%
93-68
59%
95-67
59%
95-67
59%
95-66
TTL
55%
88-71-2
51%
78-75-9
43%
69-90-2
53%
80-72-9
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